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HomePress RoomExternal CommentaryAndrew Latham for New Voice of Ukraine: Will Beijing Provide Military Aid to Moscow and What Can Stop It

Andrew Latham for New Voice of Ukraine: Will Beijing Provide Military Aid to Moscow and What Can Stop It

Image credit: Government of South Africa

By Andrew Latham

For New Voice of Ukraine, Senior Fellow Andrew Latham explains how Beijing has pursued a hedging strategy vis-à-vis Ukraine and Russia while at the same time it has endeavored to avoid being embroiled in a proxy war with Washington.

The lack of a decisive Russian victory in Ukraine does not harm China’s geopolitical status too much…But a decisive defeat of Russia is unacceptable for them, because it can significantly change the global balance of power in Washington’s favor.

READ HERE

Andrew Latham (@aalatham) is a Senior Fellow at the Institute for Peace & Diplomacy and a Professor at Macalester College.

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Panel 4: Pathways to Manage Non-Proliferation in the Middle East (4:30 PM - 5:45 PM ET)

The Western powers have failed to effectively manage the increasing threat of proliferation in the Middle East. While the international community is concerned with Iran’s nuclear program, Saudi Arabia has moved forward with developing its own nuclear program, and independent studies show that Israel has longed possessed dozens of nuclear warheads. The former is a member of the treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), while the latter has refused to sign the international agreement. 

On Middle East policy, the Biden campaign had staunchly criticized the Trump administration’s unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), more commonly known as the Iran Nuclear Deal and it has begun re-engaging Iran on the nuclear dossier since assuming office in January 2021. However, serious obstacles remain for responsible actors in expanding non-proliferation efforts toward a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East. 

This panel will discuss how Western powers and multilateral institutions, such as the IAEA, can play a more effective role in managing non-proliferation efforts in the Middle East.  

Panelists:

– Peggy Mason: Canada’s former Ambassador to the UN for Disarmament

– Mark Fitzpatrick: Associate Fellow & Former Executive Director, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)

– Ali Vaez: Iran Project Director, International Crisis Group

– Negar Mortazavi: Journalist and Political Analyst, Host of Iran Podcast

– David Albright: Founder and President of the Institute for Science and International Security

 

Closing (5:45 PM – 6:00 PM ET)

Panel 3: Trade and Business Diplomacy in the Middle East (3:00 PM - 4:15 PM ET)

What is the current economic landscape in the Middle East? While global foreign direct investment is expected to fall drastically in the post-COVID era, the World Bank reported a 5% contraction in the economic output of the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries in 2020 due to the pandemic. While oil prices are expected to rebound with normalization in demand, political instability, regional and geopolitical tensions, domestic corruption, and a volatile regulatory and legal environment all threaten economic recovery in the Middle East. What is the prospect for economic growth and development in the region post-pandemic, and how could MENA nations promote sustainable growth and regional trade moving forward?

At the same time, Middle Eastern diaspora communities have become financially successful and can help promote trade between North America and the region. In this respect, the diaspora can become vital intermediaries for advancing U.S. and Canada’s business interests abroad. Promoting business diplomacy can both benefit the MENA region and be an effective and positive way to advance engagement and achieve foreign policy goals of the North Atlantic.

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Panelists:

– Hon. Sergio Marchi: Canada’s Former Minister of International Trade

– Scott Jolliffe: Chairperson, Canada Arab Business Council

– Esfandyar Batmanghelidj: Founder and Publisher of Bourse & Bazaar

– Nizar Ghanem: Director of Research and Co-founder at Triangle

– Nicki Siamaki: Researcher at Control Risks

Panel 2: Arms Race and Terrorism in the Middle East (12:00 PM - 1:15 PM ET)

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On the other hand, with international terrorist networks and intense regional rivalry in the Middle East, it is impractical to discuss peace and security without addressing terrorism and the arms race in the region. This panel will primarily discuss the implications of the ongoing arms race in the region and the role of Western powers and multilateral organizations in facilitating trust-building security arrangements among regional stakeholders to limit the proliferation of arms across the Middle East.

 

Panelists:

Luciano Zaccara: Assistant Professor, Qatar University

Dania Thafer: Executive Director, Gulf International Forum

Kayhan Barzegar: Professor and Chair of the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the Science and Research Branch of Azad University

Barbara Slavin: Director of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council

Sanam Shantyaei: Senior Journalist at France24 & host of Middle East Matters

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In this evolving landscape, Western powers will be compelled to redefine their strategic priorities and adjust their policies with the new realities in the region. In this panel, we will discuss how the West, including the United States and its allies, can utilize multilateral diplomacy with its adversaries to prevent military escalation in the region. Most importantly, the panel will discuss if a multilateral security dialogue in the Persian Gulf region, proposed by some regional actors, can help reduce tensions among regional foes and produce sustainable peace and development for the region. 

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– Abdullah Baabood: Academic Researcher and Former Director of the Centre for Gulf Studies, Qatar University

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– Ebtesam Al-Ketbi: President, Emirates Policy Centre​

– Jon Allen: Canada’s Former Ambassador to Israel

– Elizabeth Hagedorn: Washington correspondent for Al-Monitor

Panel 4: Humanitarian Diplomacy: An Underused Foreign Policy Tool in the Middle East (4:30 PM - 5:30 PM ET)

Military interventions, political and economic instabilities, and civil unrest in the Middle East have led to a global refugee crisis with an increasing wave of refugees and asylum seekers to Europe and Canada. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has, in myriad ways, exacerbated and contributed to the ongoing security threats and destabilization of the region.

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Panelists:

Erica Di Ruggiero: Director of Centre for Global Health, University of Toronto

Reyhana Patel: Head of Communications & Government Relations, Islamic Relief Canada

Amir Barmaki: Former Head of UN OCHA in Iran

Catherine Gribbin: Senior Legal Advisor for International and Humanitarian Law, Canadian Red Cross

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In 2016, Canada launched an ambitious five-year “Middle East Engagement Strategy” (2016-2021), committing to investing CA$3.5 billion over five years to help establish the necessary conditions for security and stability, alleviate human suffering and enable stabilization programs in the region. In the latest development, during the meeting of the Global Coalition against ISIS, Minister of Foreign Affairs Marc Garneau announced more than $43.6 million in Peace and Stabilization Operations Program funding for 11 projects in Syria and Iraq.

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Panelists:

– Ferry de Kerckhove: Canada’s Former Ambassador to Egypt

– Dennis Horak: Canada’s Former Ambassador to Saudi Arabia

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– David Dewitt: University Professor Emeritus, York University

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– Dmitri Trenin: Director of Carnegie Moscow Center

– Joost R. Hiltermann: Director of MENA Programme, International Crisis Group

– Roxane Farmanfarmaian: Affiliated Lecturer in International Relations of the Middle East and North Africa, University of Cambridge

– Andrew A. Michta: Dean of the College of International and Security Studies at Marshall Center

– Kelley Vlahos: Senior Advisor, Quincy Institute

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The security architecture of the Middle East has undergone rapid transformations in an exceptionally short period. Notable developments include the United States gradual withdrawal from the region, rapprochement between Israel and some GCC states through the Abraham Accords and the rise of Chinese and Russian regional engagement.

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Panelists:

– Sanam Vakil: Deputy Director of MENA Programme at Chatham House

– Denise Natali: Acting Director, Institute for National Strategic Studies & Director of the Center for Strategic Research, National Defense University

– Hassan Ahmadian: Professor of the Middle East and North Africa Studies, University of Tehran

– Abdulaziz Sagar: Chairman, Gulf Research Center

– Andrew Parasiliti: President, Al-Monitor