
Photo: Fahd Sadi [CC BY 3.0]
By Wardah Malik
A UAE commitment to withdraw its armed forces from Yemen has brought forward the varying interests underlying contemporary Middle Eastern geopolitics. The UAE’s decision has significant political ramifications, signaling a possible end to the long-standing Yemeni war. An end that seems even more possible with the recent USCongress legislative revisions that condemn military involvement in the Middle East.
In late June, UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash tweeted that tension in the Gulf can only be addressed “politically.” Specifically, Gargash argued that dialogue between regional powers could remedy distrust between Washington and Tehran. More recently, the UAE has extended this outlook to its own troops in Yemen, which reflects its policy shift to “peace first strategy” from “military first strategy. However, for UAE, the peace strategy does not mean complete de-militarization. For instance, the UAE maintains Al-Mukalla base for counterterrorism operations and leaves behind a significant number of Emirati-trained local troops. The continued Emirati military presence in Yemen shows that the withdrawal is only partial and is, above all else, a strategic move to repair the damage that the Yemeni Civil War has done to UAE’s international reputation. Although Gargash and other Emirati officials insist thatthe withdrawal is “fundamentally about Yemen,” the UAE has vested interest in removing its troops from the region mainly due to the domestic security concerns that have surfaced as a result of escalating tensions between Iran and the US.
The recent developments clearly highlight the difference between UAE and its coalition partner, Saudi Arabia (KSA). Despite close collaboration between Emirati and Saudi forces in Yemen, the UAE withdrawal signals that the two may no longer have similar goals in the country. This is because UAE is primarily focused on counterterrorism efforts and expelling rebels from the south whereas KSA is largely involved in containing Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in the north. Moreover, the UAE is more keen to maintain a pro-Western image and distance itself from the humanitarian crisis and famine caused by the military conflict in Yemen. The two have also handled the Iranian influence differently outside of Yemen, with KSA holding Iran responsible for oil tanker attacks in the Persian Gulf and UAE being more reluctant to make direct accusations. Notably, UAE’s reluctance may stem from its interest in securing safe passageway for its ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
As a result of recent escalations, many American politicians have become weary of US involvement in the Middle East. In order to curb US presence, legislative revisions have been introduced. The House of Representatives has opted to pass an NDAA (defense authorization bill), which includes several amendments to block funds (approximately $8 billion in weapons) for US war efforts in the Middle East. The bill directly opposes Trump’s widespread support of Saudi armed forces that would considerably impact the ongoing Saudi-led military operations in Yemen. Although the House approved the bill, the House and the Senate are expected to go into conference over the bill. It is important to note thatthe Republican-controlled Senate previously refused to pass amended NDAAs in attempts to secure geopolitical interests. Given the US pledge to send hundreds of troops to Saudi Arabia to deter Iran, it seems as though NDAA legislative revisions are most likely to be vetoed.
Meanwhile, the UN envoy insist that USA and regional states hold “productive talks” aimed at implementing the Stockholm agreement and reaching a decisive ceasefire.Senior Emirati officials have also clarified that the recent withdrawal was made with respect the Emirati-Saudi coalition; with both members still committed to carrying out the Stockholm agreement. With UAE’s limited presence, the attention is now on KSA. Saudi officials must be willing to negotiate with Houthi rebels if they are serious about ending cross-border attacks. Rather than funding war efforts, the US should also adopt a mediator role and help establish direct communication channel between the two parties. In turn, an internationally-mediated deal between Saudi Arabia and Houthi rebels will curtail drone attacks and ultimately pave the way for a long-lasting peace agreement.