Zachary Paikin, Research Fellow
Expertise: EU Foreign Policy, Canadian Foreign Policy, International Order, Great Power Relations
Dr. Zachary Paikin is a non-resident research fellow at IPD based in Geneva, Switzerland. He is also a researcher in EU foreign policy at the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) in Brussels, as well as Senior Visiting Fellow at the Global Policy Institute in London, UK.
At IPD, Paikin oversaw the Institute’s 2021 federal election coverage and also serves as director of its China Strategy Project, which dwells on five key policy questions shaping the future of Canada-China relations. Paikin, who holds a PhD in international relations from the University of Kent, is also a member of the executive committee of the Younger Generation Leaders Network on Euro-Atlantic Security, as well as a collaborator with the Network for Strategic Analysis (funded by Canada’s Department of National Defence). He is a contributing author to Marginalisé : réflexions sur l’isolement du Canada dans les relations internationales (published by Presses de l’Université Laval in 2022) and co-editor of Rebooting Global International Society: Change, Contestation and Resilience (published by Palgrave Macmillan in 2022).
The perception surrounding Canada’s failure to secure a seat on the UNSC has been widely regarded as a pivotal moment for the nation’s foreign policy. However, the defeat does not equate to the decline of Canada’s international image; rather, it is a chance to refocus domestic policy and international efforts where they are most needed.
The Institute for Peace & Diplomacy (IPD) is pleased to announce our upcoming virtual panel “The Future of Grand Strategy in the Post-COVID World,” in partnership with the American Conservative as part of the launch for IPD’s International System 2050 program.
The Institute for Peace & Diplomacy (IPD) launches a new program called “International System 2050: Rethinking Grand Strategy for a Multipolar World”. This new program will be led by IPD’s Research Director
Canada’s determination to stand its ground and absorb the costs won it plaudits from human rights constituencies at home and abroad. But it was a pyrrhic victory. Canada’s ability to actually have an impact and genuinely advance its values or human rights agenda in Saudi Arabia suffered.
The Institute for Peace & Diplomacy (IPD) hosted a panel discussion on the future of the Iran Nuclear Deal on July 15, 2020.
In the short-term, Israel’s expansionist policies such as the annexation of the West Bank may make Israel feel more secure but it undoubtedly puts its security and stability at great risk in the long-term. It also leaves the long-standing Israeli-Palestinian conflict with only one viable solution that is a one-state solution associated with many complexities.
From a realist perspective, Canada’s long-term interests are guaranteed when its foreign policy is centered on multilateralism, which allows the country to capitalize on its soft power as a complementary, but a vital force to protect and promote liberal values and respect for human rights on the international stage.
This global crisis demands more cooperation among world powers. The U.S. has failed to lead, hence making it a strategic imperative for Canada to help fill the leadership vacuum and strengthen its health diplomacy.
Even before the pandemic, international companies with manufacturing in China and the privately-owned Chinese companies were moving their production base to Vietnam, among other locations in Southeast Asia. The key decision in moving manufacturing from one country or region to another includes the cost-benefit analysis, ease of doing business in a country, and the political stability – among other things.
For Policy Magazine, Research Fellow Zachary Paikin examines how a changing world order may necessitate Canada to rethink its fundamental approach to foreign policy as well as its scope.
One year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there remains no end to the war in sight. For ISPI, Zachary Paikin underlines the need for a “negotiated settlement,” an option that could avert a disastrous future for the entire European continent.
European foreign policy in the Indo-Pacific could “nurture” the Union’s strategic autonomy by establishing a “delineated hard security role in the South China Sea while maintaining a degree of distance from the US approach towards China and the Indo-Pacific.”
The Institute for Peace and Diplomacy hosted a panel on ‘One Year After Russia’s Aggression: What Future for NATO?’ on February 13, 2023.
IPD Research Fellow Zachary Paikin appeared in an episode of Voices from Brussels, a Euranet Plus podcast, discussing how the war in Ukraine has reshuffled the cards of European defense and security, as well as its relationship with NATO.
Research Fellow Zachary Paikin published an article for the Geneva Centre for Security Policy examining the future of Europe’s security and the international order in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
For a country that has not undertaken a comprehensive foreign policy review in nearly two decades, Canada has been fortunate to have two visions for its international engagement articulated this autumn alone. These two visions offer separate blueprints for how Canada should position itself in a world of rivalry and change.
Research Fellow Zachary Paikin co-edited a volume with Trine Flockhart for Palgrave Macmillan featuring contributions from IR scholars including Barry Buzan, Christian Reus-Smit, Richard Ned Lebow, and more. It examines normative change and whether it is time to “reboot” the fundamental institutions of global international society.
A new era calls for a new approach to how Canada interacts with the world. Foreign policy analysts have been pointing this out for some time, arguing that Ottawa must prepare for new threats and adapt to an uncertain world — one where functional multilateral institutions and reliable access to the American market can no longer be taken for granted.
On September 15, 2022, IPD convened the second roundtable of its “Canada’s Interests in a Shifting Order” project. The topic of this session focused on Canada’s long-term foreign policy imperatives in Europe. Participants included former and current Canadian ambassadors, in addition to roughly a dozen scholars and experts on Canadian foreign policy and Euro-Atlantic security.
IPD Research Fellow Zachary Paikin appeared in iAffairs Canada’s Policy Talks podcast. He discussed recent challenges facing Europe and the impact of the Russia/Ukraine conflict on the European Union, as well as explores current and future developments in Europe related to geopolitics, security, foreign policy, international order, and more.
In spite of recent tensions in the Canada-China relationship, Ottawa would be wise to adopt a posture rooted in caution and restraint, cooperating with Washington on the security implications of China’s rise where necessary while keeping the door open to engagement with Beijing where possible.
Reduced policy options now constrain Canada’s ability to pursue its national interests, even as the international landscape has shifted from a gradual transition of order to outright instability and insecurity in the wake of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. This calls for a more clearly delineated national strategic posture, commensurate with Canada’s limited resources.
IPD Research Fellow Zachary Paikin appeared in CBC’s Sunday Magazine to speak on the state of Canada-Russia relations and its future.
The Institute for Peace and Diplomacy hosted a panel discussion titled “Defending North America After Putin’s War in Ukraine” on Wednesday, April 27, 2022.
IPD Research Fellow Zachary Paikin appeared on TRT World as part of a panel to discuss Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent speech to the UN, and the UN’s role in the conflict at large.
IPD Research Fellow Zachary Paikin appeared on Al Jazeera’s Inside Story as part of a panel to discuss Ukraine and the state of negotiations with Russia, questioning whether potential mediators such as China or Turkey have the political capital and willingness to step in.
With the international system shifting away from Pax Americana and toward a more multipolar world, a class of state actors usually called ‘middle powers’ is the subject of increased attention in policy and academic debates.
IPD Research Fellow Zachary Paikin appeared in an interview (in French) with Radio-Canada to discuss Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s speech yesterday to the Canadian Parliament, his requests for further support to Ukraine from Ottawa, and its likely impact.
The Institute for Peace and Diplomacy hosted a panel discussion titled ‘Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: Short- and Long-Term Implications for Canada’ on Monday, March 21, 2022.
The Institute for Peace and Diplomacy will host a panel discussion titled ‘The Ukraine-Russia War: Prospects for De-Escalation’ on Friday, March 18, 2022.
The foreign policy of the Western states has been reduced to rhetorical appeals to the ‘rules-based order’ and little else.
IPD Research Fellow Zachary Paikin appeared in an interview with Radio-Canada to discuss the roots of the crisis in Ukraine, the struggle for Canada to be relevant in the diplomacy between Russia and NATO, and more.
The Institute for Peace and Diplomacy hosted a panel discussion titled ‘Russia-West Tensions Over Ukraine: Is There a Diplomatic Solution?’ on February 22, 2022.
A worldview centred on ideological considerations would worsen Canada’s dependence on the US following three decades of Ottawa tying itself – to varying degrees – to Washington’s project of building a liberal world order.
On January 14, the Institute for Peace and Diplomacy is co-sponsoring a panel discussion with NATO Association of Canada titled, “Russia Buildup Near Ukraine: What are Canada’s Interests and Options?” from 11:00 AM to 12:15 PM (EST)
The withdrawal from Afghanistan and efforts at forging a “stable and predictable” relationship with Russia have been key indicators of US priorities in the Biden administration’s first year. However, the most important dimension of US foreign policy in 2021 has centred on relations with Beijing.
On Tuesday December 7, The Institute for Peace & Diplomacy (IPD) will host a panel titled, “How Will Strained Ties with China Affect Multiculturalism in Canada?”. The virtual panel will be held from 4:00 – 5:15 PM (EST) and can be watched by registering through Zoom.
IPD Research Fellow, Zachary Paikin wrote an article with Jean Charest and Stephanie Chouinard for the Globe and Mail, arguing that embracing bilingualism in Canada will assert a much needed independent foreign policy framework.
On Monday November 1, the Institute for Peace & Diplomacy (IPD) will host a panel titled, “China’s Place in Canada’s Vision of a “Rules-Based Oder”“.
Canada’s interests are distinct from those of its southern neighbour. While Ottawa may have an interest in balancing against the security implications of China’s growing power, this does not equate to supporting a strategy of containment. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the international order has become global in scope, no longer divided into separate blocs as during the Cold War. If Canada is sincere in its oft-mentioned desire to strengthen a rules-based international order, then such an order cannot be premised on the exclusion of one of the world’s most powerful states.
On Monday October 4th, the Institute for Peace & Diplomacy (IPD) will host a panel titled, “After the Two Michaels: How should Canada navigate the US-China rivalry?”.
The status quo posture in Canadian foreign policy is, quite frankly, not a viable long-term option.
IPD Research Fellow Zachary Paikin appeared on Radio Canada to discuss the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
The post-Cold War era has been marked by a Western effort to construct a liberal world order. In truth, this project had already failed several years ago.
European security issues are often framed in binary fashion, along the lines of the rivalry between Russia and the West. Recent developments reinforce this perception, such as the US-Russia presidential summit in Geneva held in June or the deal reached last month between Washington and Berlin on the Russian Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Yet while the US-Russia great power dynamic is often determinative of events in Europe, it obscures a more complex tapestry of nested security orders that coexist on the continent.
On July 14, the Institute for Peace & Diplomacy (IPD) will host ‘Canada-US Relations in a Shifting World Order.’ The virtual panel will be held from 11:00 AM to 12:15 AM EST and can be watched live on Zoom
Canada’s involvement in European affairs has long occurred largely through the lens of NATO. To what extent can Canada’s role in NATO contribute to bringing an increased modicum of stability to a continent rife with potential flashpoints? Does Canada need to revisit its priorities and policies on questions relating to European security? And with the US-China rivalry taking centre stage and global power shifting east, should Atlanticism continue to occupy a privileged position in Canadian foreign policy?
If Canada wants to become a player that is taken seriously on the world stage, a more decisive approach is in order. This requires a clear and detailed vision of what norms, institutions, and mechanisms Ottawa should foster to build a more stable international order complementary to Canada’s core interests. Reacting to crises as they emerge with moral grandstanding and self-righteousness coupled with sanctions and repeating platitudes about the rules-based character of the existing order will not suffice.
In part due to its underinvestment in Asia in a decade where the Sino-American rivalry will take centre stage, it may already be too late for Canada to play a substantive role in shaping global order over the medium term. But as a country with a growing population and a proud history of international engagement, Canada cannot avoid asking itself what kind of international actor it wants to be as this century unfolds.
There is clearly a need for continuous and constructive analysis, debate and dialogue on the nature of Canada’s long-term national interests. This panel will discuss the state of play in Canada’s partisan foreign policy discourse, elaborate upon the necessity for Canada’s political parties to forge a consensus understanding of the national interest, and explore what some of the contours of such a national consensus might look like.
Bordering three of Canada’s four cardinal vectors, Russia will present strategic challenges – and opportunities – for Canada regardless of who sits in the Kremlin. But it is precisely its quasi-ubiquity that makes Russia the perfect candidate with which Canada can explore methods of disaggregating those vectors to prepare for the coming multi-order world.
The Western powers have failed to effectively manage the increasing threat of proliferation in the Middle East. While the international community is concerned with Iran’s nuclear program, Saudi Arabia has moved forward with developing its own nuclear program, and independent studies show that Israel has longed possessed dozens of nuclear warheads. The former is a member of the treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), while the latter has refused to sign the international agreement.
On Middle East policy, the Biden campaign had staunchly criticized the Trump administration’s unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), more commonly known as the Iran Nuclear Deal and it has begun re-engaging Iran on the nuclear dossier since assuming office in January 2021. However, serious obstacles remain for responsible actors in expanding non-proliferation efforts toward a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East.
This panel will discuss how Western powers and multilateral institutions, such as the IAEA, can play a more effective role in managing non-proliferation efforts in the Middle East.
Panelists:
– Peggy Mason: Canada’s former Ambassador to the UN for Disarmament
– Mark Fitzpatrick: Associate Fellow & Former Executive Director, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)
– Ali Vaez: Iran Project Director, International Crisis Group
– Negar Mortazavi: Journalist and Political Analyst, Host of Iran Podcast
– David Albright: Founder and President of the Institute for Science and International Security
Closing (5:45 PM – 6:00 PM ET)
What is the current economic landscape in the Middle East? While global foreign direct investment is expected to fall drastically in the post-COVID era, the World Bank reported a 5% contraction in the economic output of the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries in 2020 due to the pandemic. While oil prices are expected to rebound with normalization in demand, political instability, regional and geopolitical tensions, domestic corruption, and a volatile regulatory and legal environment all threaten economic recovery in the Middle East. What is the prospect for economic growth and development in the region post-pandemic, and how could MENA nations promote sustainable growth and regional trade moving forward?
At the same time, Middle Eastern diaspora communities have become financially successful and can help promote trade between North America and the region. In this respect, the diaspora can become vital intermediaries for advancing U.S. and Canada’s business interests abroad. Promoting business diplomacy can both benefit the MENA region and be an effective and positive way to advance engagement and achieve foreign policy goals of the North Atlantic.
This panel will investigate the trade and investment opportunities in the Middle East, discuss how facilitating economic engagement with the region can benefit Canadian and American national interests, and explore relevant policy prescriptions.
Panelists:
– Hon. Sergio Marchi: Canada’s Former Minister of International Trade
– Scott Jolliffe: Chairperson, Canada Arab Business Council
– Esfandyar Batmanghelidj: Founder and Publisher of Bourse & Bazaar
– Nizar Ghanem: Director of Research and Co-founder at Triangle
– Nicki Siamaki: Researcher at Control Risks
The Middle East continues to grapple with violence and instability, particularly in Yemen, Syria and Iraq. Fueled by government incompetence and foreign interventions, terrorist insurgencies have imposed severe humanitarian and economic costs on the region. Meanwhile, regional actors have engaged in an unprecedented pursuit of arms accumulation. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have imported billions of both Western and Russian-made weapons and funded militant groups across the region, intending to contain their regional adversaries, particularly Iran. Tehran has also provided sophisticated weaponry to various militia groups across the region to strengthen its geopolitical position against Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Israel.
On the other hand, with international terrorist networks and intense regional rivalry in the Middle East, it is impractical to discuss peace and security without addressing terrorism and the arms race in the region. This panel will primarily discuss the implications of the ongoing arms race in the region and the role of Western powers and multilateral organizations in facilitating trust-building security arrangements among regional stakeholders to limit the proliferation of arms across the Middle East.
Panelists:
Luciano Zaccara: Assistant Professor, Qatar University
Dania Thafer: Executive Director, Gulf International Forum
Kayhan Barzegar: Professor and Chair of the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the Science and Research Branch of Azad University
Barbara Slavin: Director of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council
Sanam Shantyaei: Senior Journalist at France24 & host of Middle East Matters
The emerging regional order in West Asia will have wide-ranging implications for global security. The Biden administration has begun re-engaging Iran on the nuclear dossier, an initiative staunchly opposed by Israel, while also taking a harder line on Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen. Meanwhile, key regional actors, including Qatar, Iraq, and Oman, have engaged in backchannel efforts to bring Iran and Saudi Arabia to the negotiating table. From a broader geopolitical perspective, with the need to secure its energy imports, China is also expected to increase its footprint in the region and influence the mentioned challenges.
In this evolving landscape, Western powers will be compelled to redefine their strategic priorities and adjust their policies with the new realities in the region. In this panel, we will discuss how the West, including the United States and its allies, can utilize multilateral diplomacy with its adversaries to prevent military escalation in the region. Most importantly, the panel will discuss if a multilateral security dialogue in the Persian Gulf region, proposed by some regional actors, can help reduce tensions among regional foes and produce sustainable peace and development for the region.
Panelists:
– Abdullah Baabood: Academic Researcher and Former Director of the Centre for Gulf Studies, Qatar University
– Trita Parsi: Executive Vice-President, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
– Ebtesam Al-Ketbi: President, Emirates Policy Centre
– Jon Allen: Canada’s Former Ambassador to Israel
– Elizabeth Hagedorn: Washington correspondent for Al-Monitor
Military interventions, political and economic instabilities, and civil unrest in the Middle East have led to a global refugee crisis with an increasing wave of refugees and asylum seekers to Europe and Canada. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has, in myriad ways, exacerbated and contributed to the ongoing security threats and destabilization of the region.
While these challenges pose serious risks to Canadian security, Ottawa will also have the opportunity to limit such risks and prevent a spillover effect vis-à-vis effective humanitarian initiatives in the region. In this panel, we will primarily investigate Canada’s Middle East Strategy’s degree of success in providing humanitarian aid to the region. Secondly, the panel will discuss what programs and initiatives Canada can introduce to further build on the renewed strategy. and more specifically, how Canada can utilize its policy instruments to more effectively deal with the increasing influx of refugees from the Middle East.
Panelists:
Erica Di Ruggiero: Director of Centre for Global Health, University of Toronto
Reyhana Patel: Head of Communications & Government Relations, Islamic Relief Canada
Amir Barmaki: Former Head of UN OCHA in Iran
Catherine Gribbin: Senior Legal Advisor for International and Humanitarian Law, Canadian Red Cross
In 2016, Canada launched an ambitious five-year “Middle East Engagement Strategy” (2016-2021), committing to investing CA$3.5 billion over five years to help establish the necessary conditions for security and stability, alleviate human suffering and enable stabilization programs in the region. In the latest development, during the meeting of the Global Coalition against ISIS, Minister of Foreign Affairs Marc Garneau announced more than $43.6 million in Peace and Stabilization Operations Program funding for 11 projects in Syria and Iraq.
With Canada’s Middle East Engagement Strategy expiring this year, it is time to examine and evaluate this massive investment in the Middle East region in the past five years. More importantly, the panel will discuss a principled and strategic roadmap for the future of Canada’s short-term and long-term engagement in the Middle East.
Panelists:
– Ferry de Kerckhove: Canada’s Former Ambassador to Egypt
– Dennis Horak: Canada’s Former Ambassador to Saudi Arabia
– Chris Kilford: Former Canadian Defence Attaché in Turkey, member of the national board of the Canadian International Council (CIC)
– David Dewitt: University Professor Emeritus, York University
While the United States continues to pull back from certain regional conflicts, reflected by the Biden administration’s decision to halt American backing for Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen and the expected withdrawal from Afghanistan, US troops continue to be stationed across the region. Meanwhile, Russia and China have significantly maintained and even expanded their regional activities. On one hand, the Kremlin has maintained its military presence in Syria, and on the other hand, China has signed an unprecedented 25-year strategic agreement with Iran.
As the global power structure continues to shift, it is essential to analyze the future of the US regional presence under the Biden administration, explore the emerging global rivalry with Russia and China, and at last, investigate the implications of such competition for peace and security in the Middle East.
Panelists:
– Dmitri Trenin: Director of Carnegie Moscow Center
– Joost R. Hiltermann: Director of MENA Programme, International Crisis Group
– Roxane Farmanfarmaian: Affiliated Lecturer in International Relations of the Middle East and North Africa, University of Cambridge
– Andrew A. Michta: Dean of the College of International and Security Studies at Marshall Center
– Kelley Vlahos: Senior Advisor, Quincy Institute
The security architecture of the Middle East has undergone rapid transformations in an exceptionally short period. Notable developments include the United States gradual withdrawal from the region, rapprochement between Israel and some GCC states through the Abraham Accords and the rise of Chinese and Russian regional engagement.
With these new trends in the Middle East, it is timely to investigate the security implications of the Biden administration’s Middle East policy. In this respect, we will discuss the Biden team’s new approach vis-à-vis Iran, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. The panel will also discuss the role of other major powers, including China and Russia in shaping this new security environment in the region, and how the Biden administration will respond to these powers’ increasing regional presence.
Panelists:
– Sanam Vakil: Deputy Director of MENA Programme at Chatham House
– Denise Natali: Acting Director, Institute for National Strategic Studies & Director of the Center for Strategic Research, National Defense University
– Hassan Ahmadian: Professor of the Middle East and North Africa Studies, University of Tehran
– Abdulaziz Sagar: Chairman, Gulf Research Center
– Andrew Parasiliti: President, Al-Monitor
