Canada’s search for a new submarine fleet under the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (CPSP) is far more than a procurement exercise. It will be a strategic decision that will shape the operational flexibility, industrial resilience, and geopolitical orientation of the Royal Canadian Navy for the coming decades. Recent arguments supporting the German-Norwegian Type 212CD have often framed this decision from the perspective of transatlantic solidarity and European integration. To be sure, these arguments deserve serious review. Yet at the same time, they overlook several crucial realities about Canada’s evolving security environment, industrial needs, and long-term operational necessities.
If Canada seeks a submarine fleet that could conduct operations across the Atlantic, Arctic, and the Indo-Pacific—and not simply opt for a symbolic European partner—South Korea’s KSS-III option would ultimately offer greater strategic value.
Advocates of the Type 212CD often present the CPSP decision as a geopolitical choice between Europe and the Indo-Pacific. However, such framing contains the risk of misunderstanding Canada’s actual strategic environment. Today, Canada faces an interconnected multi-theatre security environment in which Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific stability are far from separate. The same strategic pressures that are driving Canada toward Europe—Russia’s revisionism, the militarization of the Arctic, contested sea lines of communication (SLOCs), and intensifying great-power rivalry—are also pushing Ottawa deeper into the Indo-Pacific. Besides, Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy itself recognizes China as a disruptive global actor whose impact extends far beyond Asia. Under such an environment, Canada’s future submarine fleet should be designed not only for regional defence, but also for long-range strategic flexibility across multiple theatres.
This is precisely where the KSS-III provides advantages that go beyond traditionally held NATO-centric assumptions.
One of the repeatedly raised criticisms of the KSS-III is that it reflects South Korea’s unique strategic environment and therefore contains “superfluous” capabilities, including the Korean vertical launching system (KVLS). Nonetheless, such criticism assumes that Canada’s operational requirements would remain more or less unchanged for the next four decades—this may be a dangerously myopic assumption.
The strategic efficacy of the KSS-III’s KVLS hinges not on the mere operation of ballistic missiles, but on long-term adaptability. Modern submarines are increasingly required to perform multi-domain missions including long-range precision strike, intelligence gathering, special operations support, unmanned system deployment, and strategic deterrence signalling. The KSS-III’s larger hull and modular architecture offer noticeably more space for future upgrades in comparison to the smaller Type 212CD.
It is worth mentioning that Canada does not immediately need to equip submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) into the KVLS. The strategic value lies in preserving options for the future. Maintaining the flexibility to integrate cruise missiles, unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs), or future strike systems during the submarine’s thirty year life cycle could become an invaluable element amidst a rapidly evolving security environment. On the contrary, the Type 212CD’s compact design—while highly stealthy—would inevitably impose huge constraints on long-term upgrades.
Geographical elements also reinforce the logic for the KSS-III. The Type 212CD is primarily designed for the operational requirements of Northern Europe centered on the Baltic Sea and the North Atlantic littoral environment. Nevertheless, Canada’s geographical environment is fundamentally different. Having the world’s second-largest coastline, Canada is simultaneously responsible for the Arctic, Atlantic, and Pacific—this necessitates a submarine optimized for range, endurance, and long-term deployment cycles.
The KSS-III’s much larger displacement is directly linked to operational advantages that are highly relevant to Canada’s needs. Longer deployment endurance, larger payload capacity, expanded command-and-control capabilities, and improved habitability for extended Arctic patrols are critical elements for a navy that must conduct missions across vast maritime distances. At any rate, the air-independent propulsion (AIP) system of the Type 212CD is impressive. However, the KSS-III also applies advanced AIP technology while providing a greater level of operational flexibility.
In reality, Canada’s maritime geography is much closer to that of a medium-sized global maritime power rather than a confined littoral state. In this context, the KSS-III’s larger size becomes a strategic advantage instead of a liability.
The Arctic argument—which supporters of the Type 212CD often raise—also needs a thorough review. Many of the debates are centered around the submarine’s capability to surface through Arctic ice and its manoeuvrability in littoral Arctic waters. However, Arctic submarine operations involve far more than under-ice maneuverability alone. Canada’s Arctic challenge is fundamentally about endurance, range, and sustainment.
A submarine operating in the Canadian Arctic would often have to travel enormous distances long before reaching its patrol zone. Moreover, it would need to maintain long-term deployment status under extremely unfavourable conditions while preserving logistical resilience. In general, larger submarines perform better under such circumstances. Furthermore, there is a low possibility that Canada would replicate the operational concepts of Germany or Norway in the Arctic. Canada’s Northern Archipelago is far more extensive and operationally dispersed than Northern European Arctic waters. In such an environment, the sustainability of long-range patrols would likely be prioritized over the maximization of mobility.
The industrial aspect also requires balanced assessment. Advocates of the German-Norwegian option frequently argue that the Type 212CD is more aligned with Canada’s defence industrial strategy and its deepening relationship with Europe. However, South Korea today possesses one of the world’s most active and technologically advanced submarine production ecosystems. Unlike many European shipbuilders that face competing domestic priorities and production bottlenecks, South Korean shipyards maintain high-volume naval construction capacity.
This has profound implications for Canada since one of the greatest risks facing the CPSP is schedule slippage. Canada’s existing Victoria-class submarines are rapidly aging, while delays could create serious operational gaps for the Royal Canadian Navy. South Korean shipbuilders have repeatedly proven their exceptional ability to deliver major naval platforms on time and at scale both to domestic and foreign customers.
As a matter of fact, South Korea has emerged as one of the world’s fastest-growing arms exporters thanks to production efficiency, industrial scalability, and willingness to pursue aggressive technology transfer—and recently by demonstrating the exported weapon’s capability in real life. South Korea’s defence industrial model could better meet Canada’s long-term interests than European consortiums increasingly strained by NATO’s growing rearmament demands. As European states continue increasing their defence budgets following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Germany’s shipbuilding capacity may become increasingly focused on meeting European demands first. As a result, Canada might have to compete for attention within an already overstretched European defence industrial market.
On the contrary, South Korea may view Canada as a key strategic partner in the Northern Hemisphere and therefore possess strong incentives to prioritize industrial integration and long-term cooperation with Canada.
Another argument in favour of the Type 212CD is that the relationship between Canada and the European Union could be further strengthened through frameworks such as the Canada-EU Security and Defence Partnership and the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) procurement initiative. Nonetheless, strategic diversification also carries substantial value. Canada already has institutional ties with NATO, the EU, and the broader transatlantic community. Meanwhile, the Indo-Pacific remains an area where Ottawa continues seeking lasting and sustainable defence industrial partnerships.
Therefore, the introduction of the KSS-III would not be equivalent to undermining Canada’s relationship with Europe. Rather, it would complement existing Euro-Atlantic relations while significantly improving Canada’s strategic posture in the Indo-Pacific. South Korea no longer remains merely a regional arms exporter. It is increasingly emerging as a major middle-power security actor based upon its growing industrial influence across NATO, Australia, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. Poland’s large-scale acquisition of South Korean defence systems demonstrates how strategic industrial partnerships with Seoul could evolve into broader long-term defence cooperation.
Naturally, for Canada, the KSS-III would be an option capable of creating strategic leverage both in the Pacific and the Atlantic.
Ultimately, the CPSP decision should not be based solely on which submarine best reflects Canada’s historical strategic orientation. Instead, it should factor in the security environment of the 2040s and 2050s. The future security environment will likely be shaped by simultaneous crises across multiple regions, deepening instability in the Indo-Pacific, intensifying contestation over Arctic access, greater dependence on unmanned systems, and increasing pressure for burden-sharing beyond NATO’s traditional boundaries.
In such a world, strategic flexibility would become more important than optimization for a specific theatre.
Undoubtedly, the Type 212CD is a submarine optimized for European operational concepts. However, the KSS-III could better reflect the realities of Canada’s emerging strategic environment, including industrial urgency, responsibilities across multiple theatres, extensive geographical demands, and the growing convergence of security between the Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific.
Therefore, the question facing Canada is not whether it wishes to simply become a more transatlantic country. The fundamental question is whether Canada wants a submarine optimized for yesterday’s geography or a submarine designed for tomorrow’s strategic realities.
The Western powers have failed to effectively manage the increasing threat of proliferation in the Middle East. While the international community is concerned with Iran’s nuclear program, Saudi Arabia has moved forward with developing its own nuclear program, and independent studies show that Israel has longed possessed dozens of nuclear warheads. The former is a member of the treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), while the latter has refused to sign the international agreement.
On Middle East policy, the Biden campaign had staunchly criticized the Trump administration’s unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), more commonly known as the Iran Nuclear Deal and it has begun re-engaging Iran on the nuclear dossier since assuming office in January 2021. However, serious obstacles remain for responsible actors in expanding non-proliferation efforts toward a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East.
This panel will discuss how Western powers and multilateral institutions, such as the IAEA, can play a more effective role in managing non-proliferation efforts in the Middle East.
Panelists:
– Peggy Mason: Canada’s former Ambassador to the UN for Disarmament
– Mark Fitzpatrick: Associate Fellow & Former Executive Director, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)
– Ali Vaez: Iran Project Director, International Crisis Group
– Negar Mortazavi: Journalist and Political Analyst, Host of Iran Podcast
– David Albright: Founder and President of the Institute for Science and International Security
Closing (5:45 PM – 6:00 PM ET)
What is the current economic landscape in the Middle East? While global foreign direct investment is expected to fall drastically in the post-COVID era, the World Bank reported a 5% contraction in the economic output of the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries in 2020 due to the pandemic. While oil prices are expected to rebound with normalization in demand, political instability, regional and geopolitical tensions, domestic corruption, and a volatile regulatory and legal environment all threaten economic recovery in the Middle East. What is the prospect for economic growth and development in the region post-pandemic, and how could MENA nations promote sustainable growth and regional trade moving forward?
At the same time, Middle Eastern diaspora communities have become financially successful and can help promote trade between North America and the region. In this respect, the diaspora can become vital intermediaries for advancing U.S. and Canada’s business interests abroad. Promoting business diplomacy can both benefit the MENA region and be an effective and positive way to advance engagement and achieve foreign policy goals of the North Atlantic.
This panel will investigate the trade and investment opportunities in the Middle East, discuss how facilitating economic engagement with the region can benefit Canadian and American national interests, and explore relevant policy prescriptions.
Panelists:
– Hon. Sergio Marchi: Canada’s Former Minister of International Trade
– Scott Jolliffe: Chairperson, Canada Arab Business Council
– Esfandyar Batmanghelidj: Founder and Publisher of Bourse & Bazaar
– Nizar Ghanem: Director of Research and Co-founder at Triangle
– Nicki Siamaki: Researcher at Control Risks
The Middle East continues to grapple with violence and instability, particularly in Yemen, Syria and Iraq. Fueled by government incompetence and foreign interventions, terrorist insurgencies have imposed severe humanitarian and economic costs on the region. Meanwhile, regional actors have engaged in an unprecedented pursuit of arms accumulation. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have imported billions of both Western and Russian-made weapons and funded militant groups across the region, intending to contain their regional adversaries, particularly Iran. Tehran has also provided sophisticated weaponry to various militia groups across the region to strengthen its geopolitical position against Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Israel.
On the other hand, with international terrorist networks and intense regional rivalry in the Middle East, it is impractical to discuss peace and security without addressing terrorism and the arms race in the region. This panel will primarily discuss the implications of the ongoing arms race in the region and the role of Western powers and multilateral organizations in facilitating trust-building security arrangements among regional stakeholders to limit the proliferation of arms across the Middle East.
Panelists:
Luciano Zaccara: Assistant Professor, Qatar University
Dania Thafer: Executive Director, Gulf International Forum
Kayhan Barzegar: Professor and Chair of the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the Science and Research Branch of Azad University
Barbara Slavin: Director of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council
Sanam Shantyaei: Senior Journalist at France24 & host of Middle East Matters
The emerging regional order in West Asia will have wide-ranging implications for global security. The Biden administration has begun re-engaging Iran on the nuclear dossier, an initiative staunchly opposed by Israel, while also taking a harder line on Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen. Meanwhile, key regional actors, including Qatar, Iraq, and Oman, have engaged in backchannel efforts to bring Iran and Saudi Arabia to the negotiating table. From a broader geopolitical perspective, with the need to secure its energy imports, China is also expected to increase its footprint in the region and influence the mentioned challenges.
In this evolving landscape, Western powers will be compelled to redefine their strategic priorities and adjust their policies with the new realities in the region. In this panel, we will discuss how the West, including the United States and its allies, can utilize multilateral diplomacy with its adversaries to prevent military escalation in the region. Most importantly, the panel will discuss if a multilateral security dialogue in the Persian Gulf region, proposed by some regional actors, can help reduce tensions among regional foes and produce sustainable peace and development for the region.
Panelists:
– Abdullah Baabood: Academic Researcher and Former Director of the Centre for Gulf Studies, Qatar University
– Trita Parsi: Executive Vice-President, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
– Ebtesam Al-Ketbi: President, Emirates Policy Centre
– Jon Allen: Canada’s Former Ambassador to Israel
– Elizabeth Hagedorn: Washington correspondent for Al-Monitor
Military interventions, political and economic instabilities, and civil unrest in the Middle East have led to a global refugee crisis with an increasing wave of refugees and asylum seekers to Europe and Canada. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has, in myriad ways, exacerbated and contributed to the ongoing security threats and destabilization of the region.
While these challenges pose serious risks to Canadian security, Ottawa will also have the opportunity to limit such risks and prevent a spillover effect vis-à-vis effective humanitarian initiatives in the region. In this panel, we will primarily investigate Canada’s Middle East Strategy’s degree of success in providing humanitarian aid to the region. Secondly, the panel will discuss what programs and initiatives Canada can introduce to further build on the renewed strategy. and more specifically, how Canada can utilize its policy instruments to more effectively deal with the increasing influx of refugees from the Middle East.
Panelists:
Erica Di Ruggiero: Director of Centre for Global Health, University of Toronto
Reyhana Patel: Head of Communications & Government Relations, Islamic Relief Canada
Amir Barmaki: Former Head of UN OCHA in Iran
Catherine Gribbin: Senior Legal Advisor for International and Humanitarian Law, Canadian Red Cross
In 2016, Canada launched an ambitious five-year “Middle East Engagement Strategy” (2016-2021), committing to investing CA$3.5 billion over five years to help establish the necessary conditions for security and stability, alleviate human suffering and enable stabilization programs in the region. In the latest development, during the meeting of the Global Coalition against ISIS, Minister of Foreign Affairs Marc Garneau announced more than $43.6 million in Peace and Stabilization Operations Program funding for 11 projects in Syria and Iraq.
With Canada’s Middle East Engagement Strategy expiring this year, it is time to examine and evaluate this massive investment in the Middle East region in the past five years. More importantly, the panel will discuss a principled and strategic roadmap for the future of Canada’s short-term and long-term engagement in the Middle East.
Panelists:
– Ferry de Kerckhove: Canada’s Former Ambassador to Egypt
– Dennis Horak: Canada’s Former Ambassador to Saudi Arabia
– Chris Kilford: Former Canadian Defence Attaché in Turkey, member of the national board of the Canadian International Council (CIC)
– David Dewitt: University Professor Emeritus, York University
While the United States continues to pull back from certain regional conflicts, reflected by the Biden administration’s decision to halt American backing for Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen and the expected withdrawal from Afghanistan, US troops continue to be stationed across the region. Meanwhile, Russia and China have significantly maintained and even expanded their regional activities. On one hand, the Kremlin has maintained its military presence in Syria, and on the other hand, China has signed an unprecedented 25-year strategic agreement with Iran.
As the global power structure continues to shift, it is essential to analyze the future of the US regional presence under the Biden administration, explore the emerging global rivalry with Russia and China, and at last, investigate the implications of such competition for peace and security in the Middle East.
Panelists:
– Dmitri Trenin: Director of Carnegie Moscow Center
– Joost R. Hiltermann: Director of MENA Programme, International Crisis Group
– Roxane Farmanfarmaian: Affiliated Lecturer in International Relations of the Middle East and North Africa, University of Cambridge
– Andrew A. Michta: Dean of the College of International and Security Studies at Marshall Center
– Kelley Vlahos: Senior Advisor, Quincy Institute
The security architecture of the Middle East has undergone rapid transformations in an exceptionally short period. Notable developments include the United States gradual withdrawal from the region, rapprochement between Israel and some GCC states through the Abraham Accords and the rise of Chinese and Russian regional engagement.
With these new trends in the Middle East, it is timely to investigate the security implications of the Biden administration’s Middle East policy. In this respect, we will discuss the Biden team’s new approach vis-à-vis Iran, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. The panel will also discuss the role of other major powers, including China and Russia in shaping this new security environment in the region, and how the Biden administration will respond to these powers’ increasing regional presence.
Panelists:
– Sanam Vakil: Deputy Director of MENA Programme at Chatham House
– Denise Natali: Acting Director, Institute for National Strategic Studies & Director of the Center for Strategic Research, National Defense University
– Hassan Ahmadian: Professor of the Middle East and North Africa Studies, University of Tehran
– Abdulaziz Sagar: Chairman, Gulf Research Center
– Andrew Parasiliti: President, Al-Monitor