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Shield and Weapon: Lawfare and Canada in an Era of Competitive Multipolarity

How Canada navigates a legalized battlefield will determine whether it remains an adaptive middle power or becomes a passive subject of others’ laws.
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Emergent multipolarity—driven by China’s rise, the EU’s pursuit of strategic autonomy, a resurgent Russia, and a more transactional U.S. foreign policy—has produced a fragmented global order.

Great powers now use economic coercion, technological rivalry, and normative competition in ways that pull secondary powers, like Canada, into their disputes. Canada faces simultaneous pressure from U.S. tariffs, Chinese retaliation, and EU regulatory divergence, all of which limit its strategic autonomy and create a more conflictual environment for middle powers.

Where Canada once relied on its rules-based reputation to manage great-power tensions, it is now caught in zero-sum geopolitics marked by diplomatic confrontation, export controls, and technology bans. Multilateralism has shifted from a stabilizing mechanism to an arena of rivalry, threatening the economic resilience and normative identity of middle powers.

From Conventional Security to Grey Zone Threats

Traditional security frameworks are inadequate for this environment. Canada’s post-9/11 integration with US defence systems prepared it for overt military threats but not for coercive strategies that blur the line between war and peace, civilian and military, and legal and political.

U.S. economic coercion is compounded by Canada’s internal fragmentation. Canadian political, economic, and academic institutions are increasingly influenced by competing external pressures. Restricted scientific collaboration, allegations of foreign interference, retaliatory trade actions, and Arctic disputes all demonstrate how asymmetric strategies can undermine sovereignty without open confrontation.

One of the most significant yet under-recognized forms of pressure on Canada is lawfare; the strategic use of legal systems to achieve geopolitical aims without overt conflict. Lawfare allows states to pursue coercion under the guise of legitimacy. In the Canada–U.S.–China triangle, lawfare functions as a subtle but powerful mechanism of control primarily from the U.S.

The rise of lawfare signals a deep shift in international relations: law is no longer just the framework for competition but its primary instrument. As institutional trust declines and multipolar rivalry grows, legal systems have become arenas where major powers assert influence without military escalation.

As institutional trust declines and multipolar rivalry grows, legal systems have become arenas where major powers assert influence without military escalation.

Lawfare poses a danger to Canada precisely because it is incremental and legally ambiguous. Spread across sectors—from telecommunications and education to critical minerals, real estate and electoral politics—lawfare evades unified national responses. Its cumulative effect, however, is serious: eroding institutional capacity, reducing economic resilience, and exposing vulnerabilities in governance and infrastructure. 

Lawfare and Leverage: How U.S. and China Constrain Canadian Strategy

Understanding lawfare is essential for Canadian strategy because coercion occurs through contracts, regulations, and funding rules rather than force. Canada must balance its security concerns with open science, economic resilience, and normative independence; how it navigates this legalized battlefield will determine whether it remains an adaptive middle power or becomes a passive subject of others’ laws.

With respect to Canada-China relations, U.S. economic measures and national security rhetoric aimed at constraining China blur the line between alliance and subordination for Canada. On the one hand, with 76 percent of Canadian exports going to the U.S. in 2023, Washington holds significant leverage to align Ottawa’s China policy with its own. On the other hand, Canada risks being sidelined in key industries without deeper bilateral collaboration with China. 

The 2018 arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver at Washington’s request, followed by China’s detention of Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, illustrate how Canadian sovereignty is tied to U.S. strategic aims. Canada’s 2022 ban on Huawei’s 5G equipment—after the U.S. placed Huawei on its Entity List—show how U.S. policy and law shape ally behavior.

The 2021 U.S. Innovation and Competition Act (USICA) reframes science and technology as geopolitical arenas, funding domestic R&D, creating a new NSF technology directorate, securing supply chains, restricting China’s technology access, and pressuring allies to follow suit. Canada has mirrored this trend through restrictive investment-screening reforms and legislation such as Bill C-34 to limit Chinese involvement in critical minerals, telecom, and infrastructure.

USICA references Canada more than 30 times, in pursuit of cooperation on NORAD modernization, research security, and collaboration in aerospace and defence. Yet its emphasis is primarily domestic, directing $75 billion to semiconductors within a $280-billion science and technology package. By contrast, U.S. firms spent $529 billion on R&D in 2021, while Canadian firms spent just $5.2 billion—a gap that threatens long-term competitiveness.

To respond, Canada’s federal research agencies—CIHR, NSERC, and SSHRC—overplayed their hand by tightening research-security rules through two major frameworks: the Sensitive Technology Research and Affiliations of Concern (STRAC) policy (2024) and the National Security Guidelines for Research Partnerships (NSGRP) (2022). STRAC targets risks associated with open science and dual-use technologies, barring federal funding for sensitive research involving individuals linked to foreign military or security institutions. It relies on two lists—the Sensitive Technology Research Areas (STRA) and Named Research Organizations (NRO)—to identify high-risk sectors and entities. The NSGRP requires applicants with multiple private-sector partners to complete risk assessments and mitigation plans.

Although these instruments claim to safeguard research integrity, they in fact function as pre-emptive containment, limiting collaboration in high-growth fields such as AI, quantum computing, and biotechnology. Their effects are most acute regarding China, the world’s largest scientific producer; 85 of the 103 NRO-listed entities are Chinese. China hosts 26 of the top 100 global S&T clusters, compared with Canada’s three, and invests more heavily in R&D. 

Restricting such partnerships strains universities already facing falling international enrolment and funding pressures. Huawei alone contributed $56 million to Canadian research in 2019; the University of Waterloo’s 2023 termination of its Huawei partnership left a significant gap that remains unfilled. Security safeguards may therefore undermine Canada’s innovation capacity. A dearth of funding diversity also plays into America’s USICA strategy of binding Canada more closely to its own security priorities. Over time, we can expect to see more U.S. research funds and American researchers finding their way into Canadian Universities. 

Canada’s legal-security reorientation extends beyond research and development. Investment-screening reforms and legislation such as Bill C-34 aim to limit Chinese involvement in critical minerals, telecommunications, and infrastructure. While these measures are assumed to protect strategic assets, they also narrow Canada’s economic options considerably.

Even domestic laws unrelated to security have been weaponized for geopolitical signaling. Ottawa’s ban on foreign residential property ownership, extended to 2027, disproportionately affects Chinese investors and is viewed by Beijing as political. The legislation that has flowed from the Public Inquiry on Foreign Interference takes a more worrying path with lopsided and shortsighted policies that will limit public discourse on foreign interference, thereby creating a climate where legitimate criticism of Canada’s “allies” is stifled.

Much like the U.S., Canada selectively chooses when to hold states responsible for foreign meddling, unfairly labelling some diaspora as larger threats than others. For example, the repeated focus on individuals of Chinese origin contrasts with the reality that many Canadians exhibit loyalties to their homeland such as those from India, Israel, and Ukraine. This influence is evident in Canada’s foreign policy decisions, including its stance on Palestinian statehood, the closure of the embassy in Tehran, and military support to Ukraine—each shaped, to some extent, by diaspora lobbying.

The Way Forward

In a multipolar order, law has become both shield and weapon, with measures like USICA, the CHIPS Act, and research-security frameworks shaping global competition, disciplining allies, and constraining rivals. For middle powers such as Canada, this creates a dilemma: aligning with one legal and normative camp can alienate another. Following U.S. restrictions preserves market access and defence ties but limits academic freedom and diversification, while independent engagement with China risks US retaliation and reduced intelligence cooperation —each option carrying legal, economic, and reputational costs. 

Following U.S. restrictions preserves market access and defence ties but limits academic freedom and diversification, while independent engagement with China risks US retaliation and reduced intelligence cooperation — each option carrying legal, economic, and reputational costs. 

Responding to grey zone tactics therefore requires intelligence and defence reform alongside inter-agency coordination, public transparency, and adaptive legal frameworks that counter coercion without weakening democratic values. This will ensure that Canada maintains flexibility and clarity in trade and industrial policy to support growth, innovation, and long-term security.

Integrated National Security Policy:

Canada needs a whole-of-government strategy that links economic policy, technology development, foreign affairs, and defence. Currently, decisions occur in parallel, producing fragmented and reactive responses to coercion. An integrated framework would reveal cross-sector vulnerabilities—such as supply-chain chokepoints, research-security gaps, and regulatory inconsistencies—and address them through unified planning. It would also align protective measures with long-term innovation priorities so national security efforts do not undermine competitiveness in areas like AI, quantum technologies, or clean energy.

Transparent Legal Governance:

Policies such as STRAC and the NSGRP need clearer risk-evaluation criteria, stronger accountability, and transparent academic oversight. Opaque or inconsistently applied reviews by non-experts undermine trust among researchers, businesses, and international partners, as well as chill legitimate scientific collaboration. By setting predictable standards, using independent review, and providing regular public reporting, Canada can address security threats while preserving an open, innovative, and internationally engaged research ecosystem.

Diversified Partnerships:

Canada should broaden its diplomatic, economic, and technological partnerships to reduce dependence on any single great power. Stronger ties with middle powers like Japan, South Korea, Australia, and key EU states would give Canada more flexibility in supply chains, technology development, and standard setting. Engagement in G7, OECD, and Indo-Pacific R&D frameworks would secure alternative investment, expand scientific networks, and influence norms in areas such as data governance and green technology. A diversified partnership strategy strengthens resilience by preventing any one bloc from shaping Canada’s economic or technological choices.

Authors

csm_david-carment_2_ff4555d8fa
David Carment
David Carment is a Senior Fellow at the Institute for Peace & Diplomacy and a Professor at Carleton University.
Dani Belo
Dani Belo
Dani Belo is an Assistant Professor of International Relations at Webster University
Panel 4: Pathways to Manage Non-Proliferation in the Middle East (4:30 PM - 5:45 PM ET)

The Western powers have failed to effectively manage the increasing threat of proliferation in the Middle East. While the international community is concerned with Iran’s nuclear program, Saudi Arabia has moved forward with developing its own nuclear program, and independent studies show that Israel has longed possessed dozens of nuclear warheads. The former is a member of the treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), while the latter has refused to sign the international agreement. 

On Middle East policy, the Biden campaign had staunchly criticized the Trump administration’s unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), more commonly known as the Iran Nuclear Deal and it has begun re-engaging Iran on the nuclear dossier since assuming office in January 2021. However, serious obstacles remain for responsible actors in expanding non-proliferation efforts toward a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East. 

This panel will discuss how Western powers and multilateral institutions, such as the IAEA, can play a more effective role in managing non-proliferation efforts in the Middle East.  

Panelists:

Peggy Mason: Canada’s former Ambassador to the UN for Disarmament

Mark Fitzpatrick: Associate Fellow & Former Executive Director, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)

Ali Vaez: Iran Project Director, International Crisis Group

Negar Mortazavi: Journalist and Political Analyst, Host of Iran Podcast

David Albright: Founder and President of the Institute for Science and International Security

 

Closing (5:45 PM – 6:00 PM ET)

Panel 3: Trade and Business Diplomacy in the Middle East (3:00 PM - 4:15 PM ET)

What is the current economic landscape in the Middle East? While global foreign direct investment is expected to fall drastically in the post-COVID era, the World Bank reported a 5% contraction in the economic output of the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries in 2020 due to the pandemic. While oil prices are expected to rebound with normalization in demand, political instability, regional and geopolitical tensions, domestic corruption, and a volatile regulatory and legal environment all threaten economic recovery in the Middle East. What is the prospect for economic growth and development in the region post-pandemic, and how could MENA nations promote sustainable growth and regional trade moving forward?

At the same time, Middle Eastern diaspora communities have become financially successful and can help promote trade between North America and the region. In this respect, the diaspora can become vital intermediaries for advancing U.S. and Canada’s business interests abroad. Promoting business diplomacy can both benefit the MENA region and be an effective and positive way to advance engagement and achieve foreign policy goals of the North Atlantic.

This panel will investigate the trade and investment opportunities in the Middle East, discuss how facilitating economic engagement with the region can benefit Canadian and American national interests, and explore relevant policy prescriptions.

Panelists:

Hon. Sergio Marchi: Canada’s Former Minister of International Trade

Scott Jolliffe: Chairperson, Canada Arab Business Council

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj: Founder and Publisher of Bourse & Bazaar

Nizar Ghanem: Director of Research and Co-founder at Triangle

Nicki Siamaki: Researcher at Control Risks

Panel 2: Arms Race and Terrorism in the Middle East (12:00 PM - 1:15 PM ET)

The Middle East continues to grapple with violence and instability, particularly in Yemen, Syria and Iraq. Fueled by government incompetence and foreign interventions, terrorist insurgencies have imposed severe humanitarian and economic costs on the region. Meanwhile, regional actors have engaged in an unprecedented pursuit of arms accumulation. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have imported billions of both Western and Russian-made weapons and funded militant groups across the region, intending to contain their regional adversaries, particularly Iran. Tehran has also provided sophisticated weaponry to various militia groups across the region to strengthen its geopolitical position against Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Israel. 

On the other hand, with international terrorist networks and intense regional rivalry in the Middle East, it is impractical to discuss peace and security without addressing terrorism and the arms race in the region. This panel will primarily discuss the implications of the ongoing arms race in the region and the role of Western powers and multilateral organizations in facilitating trust-building security arrangements among regional stakeholders to limit the proliferation of arms across the Middle East.

 

Panelists:

Luciano Zaccara: Assistant Professor, Qatar University

Dania Thafer: Executive Director, Gulf International Forum

Kayhan Barzegar: Professor and Chair of the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the Science and Research Branch of Azad University

Barbara Slavin: Director of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council

Sanam Shantyaei: Senior Journalist at France24 & host of Middle East Matters

Panel 1: Future of Diplomacy and Engagement in the Middle East (10:30 AM-11:45 AM ET)

The emerging regional order in West Asia will have wide-ranging implications for global security. The Biden administration has begun re-engaging Iran on the nuclear dossier, an initiative staunchly opposed by Israel, while also taking a harder line on Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen. Meanwhile, key regional actors, including Qatar, Iraq, and Oman, have engaged in backchannel efforts to bring Iran and Saudi Arabia to the negotiating table. From a broader geopolitical perspective, with the need to secure its energy imports, China is also expected to increase its footprint in the region and influence the mentioned challenges. 

In this evolving landscape, Western powers will be compelled to redefine their strategic priorities and adjust their policies with the new realities in the region. In this panel, we will discuss how the West, including the United States and its allies, can utilize multilateral diplomacy with its adversaries to prevent military escalation in the region. Most importantly, the panel will discuss if a multilateral security dialogue in the Persian Gulf region, proposed by some regional actors, can help reduce tensions among regional foes and produce sustainable peace and development for the region. 

Panelists:

Abdullah Baabood: Academic Researcher and Former Director of the Centre for Gulf Studies, Qatar University

Trita Parsi: Executive Vice-President, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft

Ebtesam Al-Ketbi: President, Emirates Policy Centre​

Jon Allen: Canada’s Former Ambassador to Israel

Elizabeth Hagedorn: Washington correspondent for Al-Monitor

Panel 4: Humanitarian Diplomacy: An Underused Foreign Policy Tool in the Middle East (4:30 PM - 5:30 PM ET)

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While these challenges pose serious risks to Canadian security, Ottawa will also have the opportunity to limit such risks and prevent a spillover effect vis-à-vis effective humanitarian initiatives in the region. In this panel, we will primarily investigate Canada’s Middle East Strategy’s degree of success in providing humanitarian aid to the region. Secondly, the panel will discuss what programs and initiatives Canada can introduce to further build on the renewed strategy. and more specifically, how Canada can utilize its policy instruments to more effectively deal with the increasing influx of refugees from the Middle East. 

 

Panelists:

Erica Di Ruggiero: Director of Centre for Global Health, University of Toronto

Reyhana Patel: Head of Communications & Government Relations, Islamic Relief Canada

Amir Barmaki: Former Head of UN OCHA in Iran

Catherine Gribbin: Senior Legal Advisor for International and Humanitarian Law, Canadian Red Cross

Panel 3: A Review of Canada’s Middle East Engagement and Defense Strategy (3:00 PM - 4:15 PM ET)

In 2016, Canada launched an ambitious five-year “Middle East Engagement Strategy” (2016-2021), committing to investing CA$3.5 billion over five years to help establish the necessary conditions for security and stability, alleviate human suffering and enable stabilization programs in the region. In the latest development, during the meeting of the Global Coalition against ISIS, Minister of Foreign Affairs Marc Garneau announced more than $43.6 million in Peace and Stabilization Operations Program funding for 11 projects in Syria and Iraq.

With Canada’s Middle East Engagement Strategy expiring this year, it is time to examine and evaluate this massive investment in the Middle East region in the past five years. More importantly, the panel will discuss a principled and strategic roadmap for the future of Canada’s short-term and long-term engagement in the Middle East.

Panelists:

Ferry de Kerckhove: Canada’s Former Ambassador to Egypt

Dennis Horak: Canada’s Former Ambassador to Saudi Arabia

Chris Kilford: Former Canadian Defence Attaché in Turkey, member of the national board of the Canadian International Council (CIC)

David Dewitt: University Professor Emeritus, York University

Panel 2: The Great Power Competition in the Middle East (12:00 PM - 1:15 PM ET)

While the United States continues to pull back from certain regional conflicts, reflected by the Biden administration’s decision to halt American backing for Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen and the expected withdrawal from Afghanistan, US troops continue to be stationed across the region. Meanwhile, Russia and China have significantly maintained and even expanded their regional activities. On one hand, the Kremlin has maintained its military presence in Syria, and on the other hand, China has signed an unprecedented 25-year strategic agreement with Iran.

As the global power structure continues to shift, it is essential to analyze the future of the US regional presence under the Biden administration, explore the emerging global rivalry with Russia and China, and at last, investigate the implications of such competition for peace and security in the Middle East.

Panelists:

Dmitri Trenin: Director of Carnegie Moscow Center

Joost R. Hiltermann: Director of MENA Programme, International Crisis Group

Roxane Farmanfarmaian: Affiliated Lecturer in International Relations of the Middle East and North Africa, University of Cambridge

Andrew A. Michta: Dean of the College of International and Security Studies at Marshall Center

Kelley Vlahos: Senior Advisor, Quincy Institute

Panel 1: A New Middle East Security Architecture in the Making (10:30 AM -11:45 AM ET)

The security architecture of the Middle East has undergone rapid transformations in an exceptionally short period. Notable developments include the United States gradual withdrawal from the region, rapprochement between Israel and some GCC states through the Abraham Accords and the rise of Chinese and Russian regional engagement.

With these new trends in the Middle East, it is timely to investigate the security implications of the Biden administration’s Middle East policy. In this respect, we will discuss the Biden team’s new approach vis-à-vis Iran, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. The panel will also discuss the role of other major powers, including China and Russia in shaping this new security environment in the region, and how the Biden administration will respond to these powers’ increasing regional presence.

 

Panelists:

Sanam Vakil: Deputy Director of MENA Programme at Chatham House

Denise Natali: Acting Director, Institute for National Strategic Studies & Director of the Center for Strategic Research, National Defense University

Hassan Ahmadian: Professor of the Middle East and North Africa Studies, University of Tehran

Abdulaziz Sagar: Chairman, Gulf Research Center

Andrew Parasiliti: President, Al-Monitor