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Under Trump’s Shadow: Assessing the G7 in Kananaskis

It is because of Trump that the results of Kananaskis were a mixed bag, with leaders having to be guarded on what they said and advocated for. Carney was an effective chairman, but when you operate by consensus, his skills could only take the club so far.
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The following commentary is part of ‘Canada’s G7 Presidency: Renewing Leadership in a Fragile World Order‘, a symposium from IPD’s Strategic Foresight Brief. It was originally published by Open Canada.

Established 50 years ago, the institution of the G7 has displayed considerable staying power. And that’s because annually it provides an ideal forum for the leaders of the developed democracies, as well as other invited political representatives to informally discuss the pressing global issues of the day and to advance agreed-upon decisions.

Importantly, one of the biggest benefits of such regular get-togethers is allowing leaders to deepen their personal relationships, which is so critical in working together to develop joint policies and strategies on an on-going basis. Between the collective and bilateral discussions, these meetings also provide important face time with each other, building trust along the way.

Furthermore, the value of these get-togethers goes far beyond the two days of meetings. There is an entire and extensive G7 ‘ecosystem’ where every Summit triggers multiple follow-up sessions and initiatives throughout the year. There are also Ministerial and officials’ meetings that precede the Summits. For example, last month, the G7 Ministers of Finance met in Banff, in order to help prepare the economic agenda for their leaders.

However, in more recent years, the G7’s relevancy has been called into question by many observers. They point to the G7’s decreasing share of global GDP; to a core group of developing countries that are on the rise economically and politically; to other fora, such as the G20, which serves as competition; and to the fact that some G7 Summits don’t seem to accomplish much, other than being a talk shop.

These are all legitimate concerns that the institution of the G7 needs to address and resolve if it is to ensure its future viability, especially in a world order that is so rapidly changing. Future summits would do well to dedicate some time and effort to these significant internal issues

But more important, and adding insult to injury, is the core mission of the G7 – creating global economic stability – that has come under fierce attack by its most powerful member, one that has been instrumental in building the current international economic architecture, the United States. Talk about ironies! In fact, Trump is offside on many other issues, in contrast to the other six members, and as long as he is at the G7 table it will be difficult for the group to assert its full ambition.

Canada’s Objectives for the Summit

Canada has hosted seven G7 Summits, including the one just completed in Kananaskis, Alberta. Canada previously chaired the club in 2018, when Trump 1.0 attended and blew apart a fragile consensus by refusing to sign the final communiqué and lambasting the host, then Prime Minister (PM) Trudeau.

Notwithstanding his impressive international credentials, Carney faced a much trickier juggling act this time around, since Trump 2.0 has become more unhinged. He seems to relish his role as Disrupter-in-Chief – unleashing endless and prohibitive tariffs, undermining institutions, threatening the sovereignty of countries, questioning alliances, failing both Ukraine and Gaza, and aggressively challenging the checks and balances of democracy, both at home and around the world.

Moreover, Trump never misses an opportunity to trash multilateralism, in favour of an America-First trajectory, which runs counter to the very DNA of the G7. Indeed, the leaders met in the shadow of Trump’s trade war, and conflicts on three continents, with resulting economic instability as the global backdrop. And he still has three and a half years to go!

Everyone was on edge about how the U.S. President would comport himself, fresh from his controversial military parade in Washington the day before. This was the President’s first visit to Canada since he left the G7 in a rage seven years ago. Would he be his impulsive, show-boating self? Or would he refrain himself? My former boss, Jean Chretien, offered Carney some practical advice about dealing with Trump. If he has his infamous outbursts, just ignore him he urged, don’t respond to his desperate craving for attention. “If he has decided to make a show, let him do it and just keep talking normally”, he suggested.

The PM, therefore, had to be most mindful of managing such a provocative and explosive character and prepare an agenda and a level of ambition that had a chance to survive, and avoid Trump’s ire.

The PM, therefore, had to be most mindful of managing such a provocative and explosive character and prepare an agenda and a level of ambition that had a chance to survive, and avoid Trump’s ire.

From my standpoint, Carney faced four over-riding objectives as the host.

First, and perhaps the most important, was relationship building. He needed to further strengthen his rapport with Trump, in an attempt to resolve our bilateral economic and security differences. And, at the same time, he needed to carefully cultivate his bonds with the other leaders if he is to build the kind of successful international partnerships that would lessen our dependence on the U.S.

Second, and as already mentioned, Carney had to steer discussions away from issues that could easily have Trump blow another gasket and cause unbridgeable divisions in the group. Part of his obligation as chair was to also find common ground by bridging differences between Trump and fellow colleagues, even though that would dilute the G7’s plans.

Third, the PM had to build consensus on his three preannounced policy priorities – strengthening peace and security; building energy security and accelerating digital transformation to boost economic growth; and securing new partnerships that would spur additional investment and jobs.

Lastly, he had to engender and nurture a sense of unity and good will among all the leaders, so as to have a meaningful and constructive discussion, and agree on a series of actions.

Assessing the Outcomes

Therefore, against this checklist, how did the PM do, and what was tangibly achieved by those present?

As it relates to the first objective, I believe Carney deserves credit for how he handled the mercurial U.S. President. As he did in his first face-to-face meeting in the Oval Office, he managed Trump well. He made his interventions without peaking Trump’s quick temper, he was courteous, and he maintained a positive and calm tone throughout, all the while indulging the President’s massive ego.

In Washington, Carny referred to Trump as “transformational”. At the G7, he again resorted to flattery. Following their one-on-one meeting, he stated that, “This marks the 50th birthday of the G7 and the G7 is nothing without U.S. leadership”.

During his opening remarks to the summit, while expressing the need to change with the times, the PM also stated that Trump “has anticipated the massive changes and is taking bold measures to address them.” It would appear that flattery will get you everywhere with Donald Trump.

It also helped that the President seemed to be in a relatively good mood, complimenting the other leaders, and expressing his wonder at the breathtaking beauty of the Rockies. He stated that he had a “great day” at the G7, and even had kind words for Carney, saying he did a “very good job” as chairman.

To the degree that one can, it appears that Carney is slowly building a relationship with the U.S. President, one that is certainly far healthier than his predecessor’s, which is good news for our interests. Assuming it lasts, that is.

Flowing from their bilateral session, the two leaders agreed to accelerate a trade and security agreement. They have set a timeline of 30 days for it to be completed. This could turn out to be a major announcement, especially for Canada, as long as the deadline is respected and that the final agreement is a balanced one. We will need to stay tuned and determine how things evolve on this front, given Trump’s fame for being unpredictable.

Staying with trade, the U.S. and UK finalized their trade deal on the margins of the Summit. Hopefully, this will serve as a good omen for a Canada-UK trade agreement, as PMs Carney and Starmer announced that negotiations will resume after months of a deadlock.

A major development was Trump’s decision to leave the G7 early, after the leaders’ dinner Monday evening, citing the need to get back to Washington to deal with the Israel-Iran conflict. This certainly made chairing the second day of the Summit easier as it reduced the chances of conflict. But the non-G7 leaders, who arrived for the second day of discussions, were no doubt disappointed by his absence, especially those who had lined up meetings with him, such as the Presidents of Ukraine and Mexico.

Carney also deserves full marks for attracting an array of significant leaders beyond the regular G7 members. The heads of India, Mexico, Brazil, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, Australia, South Africa, Indonesia, UAE, NATO, the World Bank and the UN were all invited to participate in the “outreach” session. These countries and institutions are major players on the global stage, and their engagement made for a richer and more relevant discourse. Carney had some 16 one-on-one meetings with his fellow leaders.

The PM, therefore, had to be most mindful of managing such a provocative and explosive character and prepare an agenda and a level of ambition that had a chance to survive, and avoid Trump’s ire.

While not everyone invited was able to attend the Summit, the participation of so many influential representatives played well to Carney’s efforts to build Canada’s international partnerships, in a determined effort to counter American influence. As a function of our foreign policy, he rightly erred on the side of our ‘interests’ rather than our ‘values’ as I had advocated in my previous article for Open Canada, when examining the outcome of our 2025 election. This was particularly true for India and Saudi Arabia.

The addition of PM Modi was fraught with controversy, since the RCMP is still investigating whether the Indian government was involved with the murder of a Sikh activist in Canada. Carney received push back from the Canadian Sikh community, and some of his own caucus members, who demanded that the invite be rescinded. But he stood firm.

Certainly, I applaud the PM including India, as it is a prominent rising economic power, and has surpassed China as the most populous country in the world. Moreover, our bilateral ties have been in the deep freeze for far too long. Regularizing our relationship can play a critical role in our strategy to build economic alliances beyond the U.S. Plus, why would the work of the investigation, many months in the making, be thwarted by Modi’s 24-hour visit to Canada?

As it turned out, the two met and had a positive discussion. It was the first bilateral meeting in two years, and they announced that regular diplomatic services would be restored. They also committed to appointing new High Commissioners.

It’s a similar story with Saudi Arabia, where the Crown Prince has been implicated in the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi back in 2018. This episode firmly placed our relations on pause. But again, Carney was determined to reactivate our cooperation, in the pursuit of expanding and diversifying our trade and investment, as well as building our political presence in that part of the world. In the end, the Crown Prince declined the invite, but Carney’s message was crystal clear and a valuable ice-breaking move.

Our PM also had a very good meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky, as is usually the case, since our two countries enjoy a warm relationship. Carney also announced an additional $2B in military support, and a $2.3B loan to help with the rebuilding of critical infrastructure lost in the war. Furthermore, Canada slapped additional sanctions on a good number of Russian individuals and entities.

In short, our PM dealt with the relationships part of the agenda most astutely. He stuck to his plan, as he had promised Canadians during the election, of extending our global reach, and I believe this will pay off handsomely in the coming months and years.

It’s rather ironic that Trump’s hostilities are pushing other countries and leaders closer together. And citizens are fully onboard. In a Pollara public opinion study, conducted just before the Summit, it found that Canadians have seriously soured on the U.S. Some 71 percent of respondents had a “negative sentiment” towards our neighbour. Meanwhile, European countries (the UK, Italy, Germany, France) and Japan were favourably viewed by over 70 percent of Canadian respondents. And these nations felt the same about Canada.

Even more telling, is a recent global survey of 40 countries, where China emerged as the most disliked nation. In second place was the U.S., followed by Russia and North Korea. How quickly and deeply the world has lost trust in America.

When it came to the consequential issues confronting the Summit, Carney played it calmly and conservatively. By doing so, he kept his domestic political powder dry with Trump. The PM was wise to not push the boundaries and run the risk of upsetting the proceedings. With Trump sitting at the table, it was best to avoid ganging up on him, for it would have resulted in a circus. As a fall-back position, it was preferable to have these matters raised among allies in sidebar meetings, and in their own bilaterals with Trump. In fact, while we will never fully know, at this Summit, the side meetings between the different leaders were probably more impactful than the collective sessions.

In regard to Carney’s three policy priorities, he was able to generate a useful and generally agreeable discussion. The discourse led to a number of individual statements. Although, on the theme of peace and security, I’m not sure the G7 words will bring much comfort to the people caught in the war in Ukraine, the disaster in Gaza, and in the new conflict between Israel and Iran. 

Finally, on the unity front, there were no major outbursts that we know of. That’s in part because Carney ably chaired the proceedings. He was also smart in foregoing the traditional communique, in favour of a chair’s statement. Typically, a draft text of the communique is prepared by G7 officials in advance and a copy is ready for the start of the meeting. As leaders deliberate, it then gets negotiated in late night sessions by officials, which can become quite heated. The challenge is to find honourable compromises, while striving to not endlessly water down the commitments so they become meaningless.

Last year, when Italy hosted the G7, there were 22 different ministerial meetings and leaders agreed to a 20,000-word communique, which stretched credibility, given that they only had a fixed number of hours together. It would have been impossible to have consensus on such a lengthy text with Trump as a participant.

By issuing his own statement, and a number of shorter issue-specific statements, the PM avoided the threat of divisions and discord – it was astute stick-handling. As such, Carney’s approach more closely resembled the 2019 meeting in France, where the summit approved a succinct 259-word declaration, as well as several issue-specific statements.

The PM also viewed the different hot-button issues as an opportunity. Rather than trying to bang heads together around a chosen option, and running the risk of failure, he opted for the chance to rethink policies, reframe core messaging, and build new coalitions.

Some observers might well argue that the issues before the Summit were too important for leaders to lay down their swords, and that the U.S. President deserved to be challenged by his peers. I can understand this principled and combative thinking. But, at the end of the day, what would this accomplish, since Trump would never concede? How would the globe benefit from its principal leaders being in complete disarray? And how would that elevate Canadian interests with the U.S., if it came to a complete blowout?

Personally, I thought Carney’s ‘soft’ approach was prudent. Best to bide your time, build your alliances, and live to fight another day.

Carney also released a number of G7 statements on specific items, including a Wildfire Charter; on the Israel-Iran conflict; on critical metals production, on AI; on Quantum Computing; on migrant smuggling; and on transnational repression.

Unfortunately, there was no statement on Ukraine. One was being prepared but the U.S. objected. Moreover, there was no statement on Gaza either. Nor any collective soundings on the damage that American tariffs are having on individual nations, and in the global marketplace. This represents an obvious and telling failure for the G7.

Unfortunately, there was no statement on Ukraine. One was being prepared but the U.S. objected. Moreover, there was no statement on Gaza either. Nor any collective soundings on the damage that American tariffs are having on individual nations, and in the global marketplace. This represents an obvious and telling failure for the G7.

While last year’s summit mentioned Ukraine 53 times, there was not a single reference this time around, except in the chair’s summary. The U.S. is on a different page on both these major conflicts, so there was no consensus. Notwithstanding the value of Canada’s new contribution, President Zelensky must have been disappointed returning home without an endorsement of the G7, and without having met with Trump.

Indeed, as I alluded to earlier, Trump’s presence hampered the ambitions of the group to say and do more. He is clearly the outlier, and his contrarian views are a serious impediment. It is because of him that the results of Kananaskis were a mixed bag, with leaders having to be guarded on what they said and advocated for. Carney was an effective chairman, but when you operate by consensus, his skills could only take the club so far.

Clearly, the biggest challenge facing the G7 is the continued presence of Donald Trump. Historically, the U.S. has always been the locomotive of the G7, only to now have it transformed into a slow-moving caboose, thanks to him.

In Closing

Notwithstanding the Trump factor, I thought Carney ran a good Summit, especially when you consider that since assuming political office and fighting an election, he has not had much time to think through the intricacies of the G7. He was composed, wise, organized, and gracious in his chairmanship and astutely avoided the landmines that await any international organization that deals with the galaxy of controversial issues. Moreover, he very successfully kept the biggest ego in the universe in check, allowing the discussions to proceed without drama. To his credit, compared to 2018, Carney managed a much more dignified outcome.

But this outcome came at a cost. Some will conclude that the Summit was more a matter of process over substance, avoiding any commentary of critical international issues, as dictated by the U.S. In addition, it will take some time to evaluate which issues emanating from the Summit are actually brought to fruition, and which ones eventually wither, or are replaced by new priorities and events.

Compared to 2018, Carney managed a much more dignified outcome. But this outcome came at a cost. Some will conclude that the Summit was more a matter of process over substance, avoiding any commentary of critical international issues, as dictated by the U.S.

Despite the mixed results, Carney displayed compelling leadership throughout. He lived up to the expectations of being a sophisticated and polished player on the world stage. With his capable chairmanship, I am hopeful that he began our country’s renewal on the global stage, something which is desperately needed.

Consequently, Carney’s stature grew another notch, and this of course will only help him domestically. Canadians liked what they saw of him during the election, and I believe they will feel the same about his performance in Kananaskis. In fact, there should be a measure of pride whenever our country provides solid leadership globally.

The follow-up work now begins in earnest, as the G7 moves onto Evian, France next year, when it will be President Macron’s turn to figure out how to steer the group forward with Trump continuing to act as its dead weight.

Author
Sergio Marchi
Sergio Marchi
The Hon. Sergio Marchi is an Advisor to the Institute for Peace & Diplomacy and served as a City Councillor, Member of Parliament, Minister of International Trade, and Ambassador to the World Trade Organization.
Panel 4: Pathways to Manage Non-Proliferation in the Middle East (4:30 PM - 5:45 PM ET)

The Western powers have failed to effectively manage the increasing threat of proliferation in the Middle East. While the international community is concerned with Iran’s nuclear program, Saudi Arabia has moved forward with developing its own nuclear program, and independent studies show that Israel has longed possessed dozens of nuclear warheads. The former is a member of the treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), while the latter has refused to sign the international agreement. 

On Middle East policy, the Biden campaign had staunchly criticized the Trump administration’s unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), more commonly known as the Iran Nuclear Deal and it has begun re-engaging Iran on the nuclear dossier since assuming office in January 2021. However, serious obstacles remain for responsible actors in expanding non-proliferation efforts toward a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East. 

This panel will discuss how Western powers and multilateral institutions, such as the IAEA, can play a more effective role in managing non-proliferation efforts in the Middle East.  

Panelists:

Peggy Mason: Canada’s former Ambassador to the UN for Disarmament

Mark Fitzpatrick: Associate Fellow & Former Executive Director, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)

Ali Vaez: Iran Project Director, International Crisis Group

Negar Mortazavi: Journalist and Political Analyst, Host of Iran Podcast

David Albright: Founder and President of the Institute for Science and International Security

 

Closing (5:45 PM – 6:00 PM ET)

Panel 3: Trade and Business Diplomacy in the Middle East (3:00 PM - 4:15 PM ET)

What is the current economic landscape in the Middle East? While global foreign direct investment is expected to fall drastically in the post-COVID era, the World Bank reported a 5% contraction in the economic output of the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries in 2020 due to the pandemic. While oil prices are expected to rebound with normalization in demand, political instability, regional and geopolitical tensions, domestic corruption, and a volatile regulatory and legal environment all threaten economic recovery in the Middle East. What is the prospect for economic growth and development in the region post-pandemic, and how could MENA nations promote sustainable growth and regional trade moving forward?

At the same time, Middle Eastern diaspora communities have become financially successful and can help promote trade between North America and the region. In this respect, the diaspora can become vital intermediaries for advancing U.S. and Canada’s business interests abroad. Promoting business diplomacy can both benefit the MENA region and be an effective and positive way to advance engagement and achieve foreign policy goals of the North Atlantic.

This panel will investigate the trade and investment opportunities in the Middle East, discuss how facilitating economic engagement with the region can benefit Canadian and American national interests, and explore relevant policy prescriptions.

Panelists:

Hon. Sergio Marchi: Canada’s Former Minister of International Trade

Scott Jolliffe: Chairperson, Canada Arab Business Council

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj: Founder and Publisher of Bourse & Bazaar

Nizar Ghanem: Director of Research and Co-founder at Triangle

Nicki Siamaki: Researcher at Control Risks

Panel 2: Arms Race and Terrorism in the Middle East (12:00 PM - 1:15 PM ET)

The Middle East continues to grapple with violence and instability, particularly in Yemen, Syria and Iraq. Fueled by government incompetence and foreign interventions, terrorist insurgencies have imposed severe humanitarian and economic costs on the region. Meanwhile, regional actors have engaged in an unprecedented pursuit of arms accumulation. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have imported billions of both Western and Russian-made weapons and funded militant groups across the region, intending to contain their regional adversaries, particularly Iran. Tehran has also provided sophisticated weaponry to various militia groups across the region to strengthen its geopolitical position against Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Israel. 

On the other hand, with international terrorist networks and intense regional rivalry in the Middle East, it is impractical to discuss peace and security without addressing terrorism and the arms race in the region. This panel will primarily discuss the implications of the ongoing arms race in the region and the role of Western powers and multilateral organizations in facilitating trust-building security arrangements among regional stakeholders to limit the proliferation of arms across the Middle East.

 

Panelists:

Luciano Zaccara: Assistant Professor, Qatar University

Dania Thafer: Executive Director, Gulf International Forum

Kayhan Barzegar: Professor and Chair of the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the Science and Research Branch of Azad University

Barbara Slavin: Director of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council

Sanam Shantyaei: Senior Journalist at France24 & host of Middle East Matters

Panel 1: Future of Diplomacy and Engagement in the Middle East (10:30 AM-11:45 AM ET)

The emerging regional order in West Asia will have wide-ranging implications for global security. The Biden administration has begun re-engaging Iran on the nuclear dossier, an initiative staunchly opposed by Israel, while also taking a harder line on Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen. Meanwhile, key regional actors, including Qatar, Iraq, and Oman, have engaged in backchannel efforts to bring Iran and Saudi Arabia to the negotiating table. From a broader geopolitical perspective, with the need to secure its energy imports, China is also expected to increase its footprint in the region and influence the mentioned challenges. 

In this evolving landscape, Western powers will be compelled to redefine their strategic priorities and adjust their policies with the new realities in the region. In this panel, we will discuss how the West, including the United States and its allies, can utilize multilateral diplomacy with its adversaries to prevent military escalation in the region. Most importantly, the panel will discuss if a multilateral security dialogue in the Persian Gulf region, proposed by some regional actors, can help reduce tensions among regional foes and produce sustainable peace and development for the region. 

Panelists:

Abdullah Baabood: Academic Researcher and Former Director of the Centre for Gulf Studies, Qatar University

Trita Parsi: Executive Vice-President, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft

Ebtesam Al-Ketbi: President, Emirates Policy Centre​

Jon Allen: Canada’s Former Ambassador to Israel

Elizabeth Hagedorn: Washington correspondent for Al-Monitor

Panel 4: Humanitarian Diplomacy: An Underused Foreign Policy Tool in the Middle East (4:30 PM - 5:30 PM ET)

Military interventions, political and economic instabilities, and civil unrest in the Middle East have led to a global refugee crisis with an increasing wave of refugees and asylum seekers to Europe and Canada. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has, in myriad ways, exacerbated and contributed to the ongoing security threats and destabilization of the region.

While these challenges pose serious risks to Canadian security, Ottawa will also have the opportunity to limit such risks and prevent a spillover effect vis-à-vis effective humanitarian initiatives in the region. In this panel, we will primarily investigate Canada’s Middle East Strategy’s degree of success in providing humanitarian aid to the region. Secondly, the panel will discuss what programs and initiatives Canada can introduce to further build on the renewed strategy. and more specifically, how Canada can utilize its policy instruments to more effectively deal with the increasing influx of refugees from the Middle East. 

 

Panelists:

Erica Di Ruggiero: Director of Centre for Global Health, University of Toronto

Reyhana Patel: Head of Communications & Government Relations, Islamic Relief Canada

Amir Barmaki: Former Head of UN OCHA in Iran

Catherine Gribbin: Senior Legal Advisor for International and Humanitarian Law, Canadian Red Cross

Panel 3: A Review of Canada’s Middle East Engagement and Defense Strategy (3:00 PM - 4:15 PM ET)

In 2016, Canada launched an ambitious five-year “Middle East Engagement Strategy” (2016-2021), committing to investing CA$3.5 billion over five years to help establish the necessary conditions for security and stability, alleviate human suffering and enable stabilization programs in the region. In the latest development, during the meeting of the Global Coalition against ISIS, Minister of Foreign Affairs Marc Garneau announced more than $43.6 million in Peace and Stabilization Operations Program funding for 11 projects in Syria and Iraq.

With Canada’s Middle East Engagement Strategy expiring this year, it is time to examine and evaluate this massive investment in the Middle East region in the past five years. More importantly, the panel will discuss a principled and strategic roadmap for the future of Canada’s short-term and long-term engagement in the Middle East.

Panelists:

Ferry de Kerckhove: Canada’s Former Ambassador to Egypt

Dennis Horak: Canada’s Former Ambassador to Saudi Arabia

Chris Kilford: Former Canadian Defence Attaché in Turkey, member of the national board of the Canadian International Council (CIC)

David Dewitt: University Professor Emeritus, York University

Panel 2: The Great Power Competition in the Middle East (12:00 PM - 1:15 PM ET)

While the United States continues to pull back from certain regional conflicts, reflected by the Biden administration’s decision to halt American backing for Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen and the expected withdrawal from Afghanistan, US troops continue to be stationed across the region. Meanwhile, Russia and China have significantly maintained and even expanded their regional activities. On one hand, the Kremlin has maintained its military presence in Syria, and on the other hand, China has signed an unprecedented 25-year strategic agreement with Iran.

As the global power structure continues to shift, it is essential to analyze the future of the US regional presence under the Biden administration, explore the emerging global rivalry with Russia and China, and at last, investigate the implications of such competition for peace and security in the Middle East.

Panelists:

Dmitri Trenin: Director of Carnegie Moscow Center

Joost R. Hiltermann: Director of MENA Programme, International Crisis Group

Roxane Farmanfarmaian: Affiliated Lecturer in International Relations of the Middle East and North Africa, University of Cambridge

Andrew A. Michta: Dean of the College of International and Security Studies at Marshall Center

Kelley Vlahos: Senior Advisor, Quincy Institute

Panel 1: A New Middle East Security Architecture in the Making (10:30 AM -11:45 AM ET)

The security architecture of the Middle East has undergone rapid transformations in an exceptionally short period. Notable developments include the United States gradual withdrawal from the region, rapprochement between Israel and some GCC states through the Abraham Accords and the rise of Chinese and Russian regional engagement.

With these new trends in the Middle East, it is timely to investigate the security implications of the Biden administration’s Middle East policy. In this respect, we will discuss the Biden team’s new approach vis-à-vis Iran, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. The panel will also discuss the role of other major powers, including China and Russia in shaping this new security environment in the region, and how the Biden administration will respond to these powers’ increasing regional presence.

 

Panelists:

Sanam Vakil: Deputy Director of MENA Programme at Chatham House

Denise Natali: Acting Director, Institute for National Strategic Studies & Director of the Center for Strategic Research, National Defense University

Hassan Ahmadian: Professor of the Middle East and North Africa Studies, University of Tehran

Abdulaziz Sagar: Chairman, Gulf Research Center

Andrew Parasiliti: President, Al-Monitor