South Korea is currently grappling with political turmoil stemming from the aftermath of brief martial law and an impeachment process initiated by the National Assembly, compounded by heightened security concerns over potential provocations from North Korea. While the United States remains South Korea’s primary defense guarantor, Canada’s potential role in strengthening South Korea’s defense is growing in importance. Recent research from the Security Management Institute, conducted as part of a South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs project titled “A Study on Advancing the Korea-Canada Comprehensive Strategic Partnership,” underscores Canada’s emergence as a potential contributor to South Korea’s security framework. Enhancing ties with countries like Canada could bolster South Korea’s strategic resilience amid regional uncertainties and the growing necessity of diversifying international cooperation, particularly in light of escalating geopolitical challenges on the Korean Peninsula.
Since the signing of the Korean Armistice in 1953, South Korea’s defense strategy for a full-scale war against North Korea has been built around a structured operational framework consisting of three phases. The joint South Korean and United States Operation Plan (OPLAN) assumes North Korea would act as the aggressor. In the event of an attack, South Korean and United States Forces Korea (USFK) would initially hold positions north of the Han River (Phase I). Within two weeks, United States Forces stationed in Japan would deploy to the Korean Peninsula to bolster the defense effort (Phase II). By 90 days, the majority of the United States’ reinforcements would arrive from the U.S. mainland, providing overwhelming force to defeat North Korean aggression (Phase III).
Recognizing that U.S. reinforcements would decisively shift the balance, North Korea has long sought ways to conclude a conflict swiftly before such support could fully materialize. In response, South Korea and the United States have spent the past seven decades developing measures to counter the risks of a potential North Korean blitzkrieg and strengthening their defense capabilities.
However, the structured operational framework that has long underpinned South Korea’s defense strategy is currently facing significant vulnerabilities due to two new developments. First, North Korea’s nuclear weapons, mounted on reliable intercontinental ballistic missiles with potential multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) capability, are undermining the credibility of the U.S. nuclear umbrella. For seven decades, the U.S. has consistently assured the implementation of Phase II (deploying USFJ to the Korean Peninsula) and Phase III (dispatching reinforcements from the U.S. mainland) during a full-scale war in the Korean Peninsula. However, North Korea’s progress in long-range missile technology, capable of reaching the U.S. west coast, combined with miniaturized nuclear warheads, raises the risk of nuclear decoupling among the U.S., South Korea, and Japan. This situation echoes Western Europe’s concerns during the Cold War over U.S. commitment in a nuclear exchange. But unlike the Soviet Union, which had limited success in exploiting NATO’s internal disagreements, North Korea explicitly aims to weaken U.S.-South Korea-Japan ties through nuclear blackmail.
Second, the likelihood of a two-front war — one in the Taiwan Strait and another on the Korean Peninsula — has increased. While it remains uncertain whether Kim Jong-un would align with China to coordinate such a conflict, North Korea might exploit a Chinese invasion of Taiwan as an opportunity to launch an offensive against South Korea. In such a scenario, a substantial portion of USFJ forces and U.S. reinforcements could be diverted to the Taiwan Strait, leaving fewer military assets available to defend South Korea.
Canada can play a crucial role in strengthening South Korea’s defense against North Korea’s attempts to undermine the U.S. security commitment and the potential diversion of U.S. reinforcements from the Korean Peninsula due to the growing likelihood of a two-front war. By enhancing trilateral security cooperation with South Korea and the United States, Canada can contribute to countering North Korea’s growing missile and nuclear threats.
Expanding the role of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) could involve integrating Pacific early warning systems with missile detection networks in South Korea and Japan to track North Korean missile trajectories and establish real-time warning systems. Notably, if North Korea intends to target the U.S. east coast and extends the range of its ICBMs, the missile’s trajectory would likely pass over the North Pole and Canadian airspace before reaching the United States.
Additionally, Canada’s involvement in developing a joint Ballistic Missile Defense protocol and participating in allied exercises would enhance interoperability and readiness. Leveraging Canada’s RADARSAT constellation for precise tracking and incorporating AI-driven analytics could further reduce detection and response times, enabling the creation of a robust, multi-layered defense network. This collaboration would not only address North Korea’s ICBMs and maneuverable missiles but also complement South Korea’s missile defense systems, significantly strengthening its overall security posture.
Furthermore, by collaborating to establish a joint sustainment hub for the efficient upkeep of key military assets, including fighter jets, naval ships, and submarines, Canada could meaningfully offset the reduced availability of U.S. forces on the Korean Peninsula, potentially preventing a security vacuum in the event of a two-front war in East Asia. Combining Canada’s extensive maintenance expertise with South Korea’s advanced infrastructure and technical capabilities, the hub would enhance cost efficiency and operational readiness. Canada can leverage its experience in submarine and ship maintenance and supply critical materials like lithium and nickel, while South Korea provides cutting-edge aerospace and shipbuilding technologies, advanced infrastructure, and trained personnel.
The hub, potentially located in strategically important port cities like Busan or Ulsan, would also serve as a multinational cooperation center, supporting equipment from countries like the U.S. and Japan. Additionally, through AI-driven predictive maintenance, advanced diagnostics, and automated systems, the hub would integrate cutting-edge technologies to optimize equipment uptime, strengthen defense capacities, and reinforce security in the Indo-Pacific region.
Even before South Korea and Canada formalized diplomatic relations in 1963, Canada had already demonstrated its commitment to South Korea’s defense by deploying roughly 27,000 combat troops during the Korean War (1950–1953), playing a pivotal role in the Battle of Kapyong by fending off Chinese forces. While South Korea’s security has predominantly relied on the United States since the 1953 Korean Armistice, solidified through the U.S.-ROK Mutual Defense Treaty, emerging challenges — such as North Korea’s advancing nuclear capabilities and the increasing likelihood of conflict in the Taiwan Strait — highlight the growing need for support from semi-allied nations beyond the United States. In this context, Canada stands out as a key partner. By expanding its role within NORAD and collaborating with South Korea to establish a joint sustainment hub, Canada could bolster both deterrence and defense against North Korean aggression.
The Western powers have failed to effectively manage the increasing threat of proliferation in the Middle East. While the international community is concerned with Iran’s nuclear program, Saudi Arabia has moved forward with developing its own nuclear program, and independent studies show that Israel has longed possessed dozens of nuclear warheads. The former is a member of the treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), while the latter has refused to sign the international agreement.
On Middle East policy, the Biden campaign had staunchly criticized the Trump administration’s unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), more commonly known as the Iran Nuclear Deal and it has begun re-engaging Iran on the nuclear dossier since assuming office in January 2021. However, serious obstacles remain for responsible actors in expanding non-proliferation efforts toward a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East.
This panel will discuss how Western powers and multilateral institutions, such as the IAEA, can play a more effective role in managing non-proliferation efforts in the Middle East.
Panelists:
– Peggy Mason: Canada’s former Ambassador to the UN for Disarmament
– Mark Fitzpatrick: Associate Fellow & Former Executive Director, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)
– Ali Vaez: Iran Project Director, International Crisis Group
– Negar Mortazavi: Journalist and Political Analyst, Host of Iran Podcast
– David Albright: Founder and President of the Institute for Science and International Security
Closing (5:45 PM – 6:00 PM ET)
What is the current economic landscape in the Middle East? While global foreign direct investment is expected to fall drastically in the post-COVID era, the World Bank reported a 5% contraction in the economic output of the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries in 2020 due to the pandemic. While oil prices are expected to rebound with normalization in demand, political instability, regional and geopolitical tensions, domestic corruption, and a volatile regulatory and legal environment all threaten economic recovery in the Middle East. What is the prospect for economic growth and development in the region post-pandemic, and how could MENA nations promote sustainable growth and regional trade moving forward?
At the same time, Middle Eastern diaspora communities have become financially successful and can help promote trade between North America and the region. In this respect, the diaspora can become vital intermediaries for advancing U.S. and Canada’s business interests abroad. Promoting business diplomacy can both benefit the MENA region and be an effective and positive way to advance engagement and achieve foreign policy goals of the North Atlantic.
This panel will investigate the trade and investment opportunities in the Middle East, discuss how facilitating economic engagement with the region can benefit Canadian and American national interests, and explore relevant policy prescriptions.
Panelists:
– Hon. Sergio Marchi: Canada’s Former Minister of International Trade
– Scott Jolliffe: Chairperson, Canada Arab Business Council
– Esfandyar Batmanghelidj: Founder and Publisher of Bourse & Bazaar
– Nizar Ghanem: Director of Research and Co-founder at Triangle
– Nicki Siamaki: Researcher at Control Risks
The Middle East continues to grapple with violence and instability, particularly in Yemen, Syria and Iraq. Fueled by government incompetence and foreign interventions, terrorist insurgencies have imposed severe humanitarian and economic costs on the region. Meanwhile, regional actors have engaged in an unprecedented pursuit of arms accumulation. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have imported billions of both Western and Russian-made weapons and funded militant groups across the region, intending to contain their regional adversaries, particularly Iran. Tehran has also provided sophisticated weaponry to various militia groups across the region to strengthen its geopolitical position against Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Israel.
On the other hand, with international terrorist networks and intense regional rivalry in the Middle East, it is impractical to discuss peace and security without addressing terrorism and the arms race in the region. This panel will primarily discuss the implications of the ongoing arms race in the region and the role of Western powers and multilateral organizations in facilitating trust-building security arrangements among regional stakeholders to limit the proliferation of arms across the Middle East.
Panelists:
Luciano Zaccara: Assistant Professor, Qatar University
Dania Thafer: Executive Director, Gulf International Forum
Kayhan Barzegar: Professor and Chair of the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the Science and Research Branch of Azad University
Barbara Slavin: Director of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council
Sanam Shantyaei: Senior Journalist at France24 & host of Middle East Matters
The emerging regional order in West Asia will have wide-ranging implications for global security. The Biden administration has begun re-engaging Iran on the nuclear dossier, an initiative staunchly opposed by Israel, while also taking a harder line on Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen. Meanwhile, key regional actors, including Qatar, Iraq, and Oman, have engaged in backchannel efforts to bring Iran and Saudi Arabia to the negotiating table. From a broader geopolitical perspective, with the need to secure its energy imports, China is also expected to increase its footprint in the region and influence the mentioned challenges.
In this evolving landscape, Western powers will be compelled to redefine their strategic priorities and adjust their policies with the new realities in the region. In this panel, we will discuss how the West, including the United States and its allies, can utilize multilateral diplomacy with its adversaries to prevent military escalation in the region. Most importantly, the panel will discuss if a multilateral security dialogue in the Persian Gulf region, proposed by some regional actors, can help reduce tensions among regional foes and produce sustainable peace and development for the region.
Panelists:
– Abdullah Baabood: Academic Researcher and Former Director of the Centre for Gulf Studies, Qatar University
– Trita Parsi: Executive Vice-President, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
– Ebtesam Al-Ketbi: President, Emirates Policy Centre
– Jon Allen: Canada’s Former Ambassador to Israel
– Elizabeth Hagedorn: Washington correspondent for Al-Monitor
Military interventions, political and economic instabilities, and civil unrest in the Middle East have led to a global refugee crisis with an increasing wave of refugees and asylum seekers to Europe and Canada. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has, in myriad ways, exacerbated and contributed to the ongoing security threats and destabilization of the region.
While these challenges pose serious risks to Canadian security, Ottawa will also have the opportunity to limit such risks and prevent a spillover effect vis-à-vis effective humanitarian initiatives in the region. In this panel, we will primarily investigate Canada’s Middle East Strategy’s degree of success in providing humanitarian aid to the region. Secondly, the panel will discuss what programs and initiatives Canada can introduce to further build on the renewed strategy. and more specifically, how Canada can utilize its policy instruments to more effectively deal with the increasing influx of refugees from the Middle East.
Panelists:
Erica Di Ruggiero: Director of Centre for Global Health, University of Toronto
Reyhana Patel: Head of Communications & Government Relations, Islamic Relief Canada
Amir Barmaki: Former Head of UN OCHA in Iran
Catherine Gribbin: Senior Legal Advisor for International and Humanitarian Law, Canadian Red Cross
In 2016, Canada launched an ambitious five-year “Middle East Engagement Strategy” (2016-2021), committing to investing CA$3.5 billion over five years to help establish the necessary conditions for security and stability, alleviate human suffering and enable stabilization programs in the region. In the latest development, during the meeting of the Global Coalition against ISIS, Minister of Foreign Affairs Marc Garneau announced more than $43.6 million in Peace and Stabilization Operations Program funding for 11 projects in Syria and Iraq.
With Canada’s Middle East Engagement Strategy expiring this year, it is time to examine and evaluate this massive investment in the Middle East region in the past five years. More importantly, the panel will discuss a principled and strategic roadmap for the future of Canada’s short-term and long-term engagement in the Middle East.
Panelists:
– Ferry de Kerckhove: Canada’s Former Ambassador to Egypt
– Dennis Horak: Canada’s Former Ambassador to Saudi Arabia
– Chris Kilford: Former Canadian Defence Attaché in Turkey, member of the national board of the Canadian International Council (CIC)
– David Dewitt: University Professor Emeritus, York University
While the United States continues to pull back from certain regional conflicts, reflected by the Biden administration’s decision to halt American backing for Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen and the expected withdrawal from Afghanistan, US troops continue to be stationed across the region. Meanwhile, Russia and China have significantly maintained and even expanded their regional activities. On one hand, the Kremlin has maintained its military presence in Syria, and on the other hand, China has signed an unprecedented 25-year strategic agreement with Iran.
As the global power structure continues to shift, it is essential to analyze the future of the US regional presence under the Biden administration, explore the emerging global rivalry with Russia and China, and at last, investigate the implications of such competition for peace and security in the Middle East.
Panelists:
– Dmitri Trenin: Director of Carnegie Moscow Center
– Joost R. Hiltermann: Director of MENA Programme, International Crisis Group
– Roxane Farmanfarmaian: Affiliated Lecturer in International Relations of the Middle East and North Africa, University of Cambridge
– Andrew A. Michta: Dean of the College of International and Security Studies at Marshall Center
– Kelley Vlahos: Senior Advisor, Quincy Institute
The security architecture of the Middle East has undergone rapid transformations in an exceptionally short period. Notable developments include the United States gradual withdrawal from the region, rapprochement between Israel and some GCC states through the Abraham Accords and the rise of Chinese and Russian regional engagement.
With these new trends in the Middle East, it is timely to investigate the security implications of the Biden administration’s Middle East policy. In this respect, we will discuss the Biden team’s new approach vis-à-vis Iran, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. The panel will also discuss the role of other major powers, including China and Russia in shaping this new security environment in the region, and how the Biden administration will respond to these powers’ increasing regional presence.
Panelists:
– Sanam Vakil: Deputy Director of MENA Programme at Chatham House
– Denise Natali: Acting Director, Institute for National Strategic Studies & Director of the Center for Strategic Research, National Defense University
– Hassan Ahmadian: Professor of the Middle East and North Africa Studies, University of Tehran
– Abdulaziz Sagar: Chairman, Gulf Research Center
– Andrew Parasiliti: President, Al-Monitor
