(Clockwise from left to right) Britain’s Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Japan’s Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, Canada’s Foreign Minister Melanie Joly, France’s Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna, Italian Foreign Ministry’s Director General for Political Affairs and International Security Pasquale Ferrara and High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell are seated ahead of the working dinner during the G7 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting at the Iikura Guest House on Nov. 7, in Tokyo. “Canada’s ability to influence events on the global stage is limited, and that its diplomatic efforts are often overshadowed by the actions of larger, more powerful nations,” writes Andrew A. Latham.
(Clockwise from left to right) Britain’s Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Japan’s Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, Canada’s Foreign Minister Melanie Joly, France’s Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna, Italian Foreign Ministry’s Director General for Political Affairs and International Security Pasquale Ferrara and High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell are seated ahead of the working dinner during the G7 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting at the Iikura Guest House on Nov. 7, in Tokyo. “Canada’s ability to influence events on the global stage is limited, and that its diplomatic efforts are often overshadowed by the actions of larger, more powerful nations,” writes Andrew A. Latham.
“There is a tide in the affairs of men, which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune; omitted, all the voyage of their life Is bound in shallows and miseries.”
This famous quote from Shakespeare’s play “Julius Caesar” aptly captures the moment Canada finds itself in today. At a crossroads in its foreign policy, Canada must decide whether to cling to the outdated notion of middle power status or embrace a new grand strategy that is more modest and realistic.
Canada has long held itself in high regard as a “middle power” on the global stage, a nation that excels despite its size, promoting peace, diplomacy, and multilateralism. However, this perception is increasingly out of sync with the realities of the 21st century, a world marked by rising power competition, a shifting global order, and a host of emerging threats.
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The recent study ”True North” by the Institute for Peace and Diplomacy (IPD) offers a sobering assessment of Canada’s grand strategy, arguing that the middle power approach is no longer viable, neither on the global level nor on the regional (North American) level.
The study rightly points out that Canada’s ability to influence events on the global stage is limited, and that its diplomatic efforts are often overshadowed by the actions of larger, more powerful nations.
In an increasingly multipolar world, Canada’s middle power diplomacy is often drowned out by the noise of great power competition. The rise of China, the resurgence of Russia, and the ongoing assertiveness of other emerging powers have created a complex and challenging international environment in which Canada’s traditional approach is ill-suited to advance its interests.
Moreover, Canada’s middle power status has been further eroded by the declining influence of multilateral institutions, a key pillar of Canadian diplomacy. The rise of nationalism and protectionism, coupled with the increasing assertiveness of non-Western powers, has undermined the effectiveness of traditional multilateral forums. As a result, Canada’s ability to shape global outcomes through multilateral co-operation is increasingly constrained.
The middle power approach is also failing to serve Canada’s interests on the regional level. As the United States turns inward and focuses on its domestic challenges, Canada is increasingly left to navigate the complexities of North American security on its own.
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The growing threat of climate change, the ongoing challenges of irregular migration, and the increasing militarization of the Arctic all demand a more robust and focused approach from Canada.
The IPD study argues that Canada needs to adopt a new grand strategy, one that prioritizes security and co-operation within North America and the Arctic. This new strategy should focus on three key areas:
Strengthening North American security co-operation
Canada needs to work closely with the United States and Mexico to address shared security challenges, such as cyber threats, terrorism, and irregular migration. This will require a renewed commitment to North American institutions, such as Norad and the North American Leaders’ Summit.
Protecting Arctic sovereignty and interests
The Arctic is rapidly becoming a strategic hot spot, with increased competition for resources and a growing military presence. Canada needs to strengthen its military capabilities in the region, work with allies to maintain a rules-based Arctic order, and invest in Arctic communities and infrastructure.
Promoting sustainable development in the Arctic
Climate change is having a devastating impact on the Arctic, threatening Indigenous communities and ecosystems. Canada needs to take a leadership role in promoting sustainable development in the region, working with Arctic communities, Indigenous Peoples, and international partners.
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Adopting a new grand strategy focused on North America and the Arctic will require a significant shift in Canadian foreign policy. It will mean moving away from the middle power delusion and embracing a more realistic assessment of Canada’s role in the world. It will also require increased investment in defence, diplomacy, and development.
The stakes are high. Canada’s failure to adapt to the changing global landscape will have serious consequences for its security, prosperity, and values. The time for Canada to shed the middle power delusion and focus its grand strategy on North America and the Arctic is now.
As Shakespeare so eloquently put it, “There is a tide in the affairs of men.” Canada must seize this moment to chart a new course for its foreign policy, one that will secure its place in the world for generations to come.
Andrew A. Latham is a professor of international relations and political theory at Macalester College in Saint Paul, Minn.
