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Europe’s ‘Unity’ for the Sake of ‘Unity’ Against Russia is Misguided

Image credit: NATO

By Zachary Paikin

The following article was originally published in Responsible Statecraft.

In recent years, the world’s great powers have increasingly placed their own narrow interests and their deepening competition with one another ahead of the well-being of the wider international order: the United States reiterates its lofty principles without truly addressing the security concerns of its adversaries; Russia pursues destabilizing actions to gain an edge in its asymmetric contest with the West; and rather than embrace the role of defender of globalization and multilateralism, China has chosen the path of assertiveness and has hunkered down for a long-term standoff with the U.S.

In such a context, middle powers ideally should play a role in restraining the impulses of the world’s most powerful states. However, in the current crisis over Ukraine, Euro-Atlantic allies (apart from France’s Emmanuel Macron) have opted to prioritize demonstrating “unity,” rather than pursue creative diplomacy with Russia which might have averted a war.

As great power competition has increased in the Pacific theatre, middle power actors such as Japan and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have opted to pursue a mostly restrained and de-ideologized approach to their “Indo-Pacific” strategies, favoring an American security presence that is engaged but does not needlessly provoke China or push the region toward bloc politics. The same cannot be said of Washington’s European allies, where “unity” and “resolve” are often seen as ends in themselves.

This veneration of unity over substance has at least three sources. The first concerns the outsized role accorded to economic sanctions in Western policy. During the initial Russian incursion into Ukraine eight years ago, sanctions against Russia represented one of the few examples of unity among EU member states, at a time when the bloc was facing internal divisions over migration policy and eurozone governance. There has thus been an incentive to keep these sanctions in place, even if they have not succeeded in changing Russia’s behaviour.

Similarly, in the current crisis, sanctions are perceived as a key tool due to the West’s unwillingness to commit to the military defence of Ukraine — and transatlantic unity is viewed as imperative to ensuring their effectiveness. Yet despite the significant degree of Western coordination on display earlier this week, when new sanctions were enacted in response to Russia’s recognition of the two breakaway republics in Donetsk and Luhansk, there is already growing consensus that these measures will not deter Moscow from pursuing what it sees as its core interest in avoiding geopolitical defeat in Ukraine.

Second, a common refrain is that authoritarian states seek to drive a wedge in the transatlantic alliance and between EU member states. As a result, preserving Western and European solidarity is seen as a substantive policy goal in itself. However, this view mistakenly assumes that Moscow is pursuing a coherent strategy when in fact its behaviour is mostly reactive.

Europe’s post-Cold War security order has consolidated in a fashion that largely excludes Russia, giving Moscow little stake in upholding the status quo. NATO and EU members can use their collective bargaining power to wield outsized influence in Eastern Europe at Russia’s expense. Moscow’s natural response is to seek to disrupt the West’s ability to exercise its collective clout. Yet because Russia’s disruptive behavior is viewed as being the result of its regime type or the man at the top, Western states prioritize demonstrating “unity” and “resolve” over constructing a more inclusive European security system. This creates a vicious cycle of confrontation with no obvious endgame, leaving the ultimate purpose of Western unity unclear.

Finally, the evolving structure of global politics has buttressed the rationale for greater unity among Western states. During the Cold War, although the core aims of the capitalist bloc were geopolitical, the means employed to achieve those aims were, to a significant extent, economic. The task of containing the Soviet Union depended on sustaining a belt of integrated and wealthy economies along the Eurasian Rimland, most notably in Europe.

Yet with the gradual rise of the non-West, U.S.-Europe economic ties have now declined in relative terms, rendering the military dimension of the transatlantic relationship more important. The post-Cold War era has also featured significant swings in U.S. foreign policy priorities between Democratic and Republican administrations, making it more difficult for middle powers to undertake the strategic planning necessary to conduct a more independent foreign policy.

With unity being venerated for unity’s sake, Macron’s efforts to avert a disastrous crisis through diplomacy have been sharply criticized. Admittedly, the French president has done himself few favors in recent years, launching a separate Franco-Russian rapprochement to little apparent effect, calling NATO “brain dead,” and (along with Germany) proposing a relaunched dialogue between the EU and Russia at the June 2021 European Council without consulting European partners. Macron’s more recent efforts to find a diplomatic solution to the crisis over Ukraine have been coordinated with Western allies, yet a chorus of European voices continues to reject any notion that Europe should actively pursue its own vision of continental security, even in a fashion complementary to NATO.

The West’s emphasis on demonstrating unity has resulted in a complete refusal to discuss the status of Ukraine. It is difficult to imagine that this is truly a matter of principle, namely respecting Kyiv’s “right to choose” its own path. Nearly 14 years have elapsed since the Bucharest summit at which Ukraine was first promised NATO membership and its accession to the Alliance does not appear likely for the foreseeable future. Rather, NATO’s open-door policy appears to be driven by political inertia, a desire for the Alliance to retain maximum room for maneuver its relations with Moscow and, above all, a refusal to disavow the notion that the West won the Cold War and therefore has the right to dictate the rules of the game in Europe.

Faced with the gravest security crisis on the European continent in decades, the foreign policy of Western states has been largely reduced to rhetorical and romantic appeals to the “rules-based international order.” That Western states have bent and broken the rules on numerous occasions since the fall of the Berlin Wall only adds to the irony. But if this crisis has revealed anything, it is that Western unity is unlikely to remain a sufficient condition for upholding order in Europe, to say nothing of the constraints that liberal values and Western hegemony will face in a multipolar and truly global international order.

Dr. Zachary Paikin (@zpaikin) is a non-resident research fellow at IPD and a researcher at the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels (CEPS).

Panel 4: Pathways to Manage Non-Proliferation in the Middle East (4:30 PM - 5:45 PM ET)

The Western powers have failed to effectively manage the increasing threat of proliferation in the Middle East. While the international community is concerned with Iran’s nuclear program, Saudi Arabia has moved forward with developing its own nuclear program, and independent studies show that Israel has longed possessed dozens of nuclear warheads. The former is a member of the treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), while the latter has refused to sign the international agreement. 

On Middle East policy, the Biden campaign had staunchly criticized the Trump administration’s unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), more commonly known as the Iran Nuclear Deal and it has begun re-engaging Iran on the nuclear dossier since assuming office in January 2021. However, serious obstacles remain for responsible actors in expanding non-proliferation efforts toward a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East. 

This panel will discuss how Western powers and multilateral institutions, such as the IAEA, can play a more effective role in managing non-proliferation efforts in the Middle East.  

Panelists:

Peggy Mason: Canada’s former Ambassador to the UN for Disarmament

Mark Fitzpatrick: Associate Fellow & Former Executive Director, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)

Ali Vaez: Iran Project Director, International Crisis Group

Negar Mortazavi: Journalist and Political Analyst, Host of Iran Podcast

David Albright: Founder and President of the Institute for Science and International Security

 

Closing (5:45 PM – 6:00 PM ET)

Panel 3: Trade and Business Diplomacy in the Middle East (3:00 PM - 4:15 PM ET)

What is the current economic landscape in the Middle East? While global foreign direct investment is expected to fall drastically in the post-COVID era, the World Bank reported a 5% contraction in the economic output of the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries in 2020 due to the pandemic. While oil prices are expected to rebound with normalization in demand, political instability, regional and geopolitical tensions, domestic corruption, and a volatile regulatory and legal environment all threaten economic recovery in the Middle East. What is the prospect for economic growth and development in the region post-pandemic, and how could MENA nations promote sustainable growth and regional trade moving forward?

At the same time, Middle Eastern diaspora communities have become financially successful and can help promote trade between North America and the region. In this respect, the diaspora can become vital intermediaries for advancing U.S. and Canada’s business interests abroad. Promoting business diplomacy can both benefit the MENA region and be an effective and positive way to advance engagement and achieve foreign policy goals of the North Atlantic.

This panel will investigate the trade and investment opportunities in the Middle East, discuss how facilitating economic engagement with the region can benefit Canadian and American national interests, and explore relevant policy prescriptions.

Panelists:

Hon. Sergio Marchi: Canada’s Former Minister of International Trade

Scott Jolliffe: Chairperson, Canada Arab Business Council

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj: Founder and Publisher of Bourse & Bazaar

Nizar Ghanem: Director of Research and Co-founder at Triangle

Nicki Siamaki: Researcher at Control Risks

Panel 2: Arms Race and Terrorism in the Middle East (12:00 PM - 1:15 PM ET)

The Middle East continues to grapple with violence and instability, particularly in Yemen, Syria and Iraq. Fueled by government incompetence and foreign interventions, terrorist insurgencies have imposed severe humanitarian and economic costs on the region. Meanwhile, regional actors have engaged in an unprecedented pursuit of arms accumulation. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have imported billions of both Western and Russian-made weapons and funded militant groups across the region, intending to contain their regional adversaries, particularly Iran. Tehran has also provided sophisticated weaponry to various militia groups across the region to strengthen its geopolitical position against Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Israel. 

On the other hand, with international terrorist networks and intense regional rivalry in the Middle East, it is impractical to discuss peace and security without addressing terrorism and the arms race in the region. This panel will primarily discuss the implications of the ongoing arms race in the region and the role of Western powers and multilateral organizations in facilitating trust-building security arrangements among regional stakeholders to limit the proliferation of arms across the Middle East.

 

Panelists:

Luciano Zaccara: Assistant Professor, Qatar University

Dania Thafer: Executive Director, Gulf International Forum

Kayhan Barzegar: Professor and Chair of the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the Science and Research Branch of Azad University

Barbara Slavin: Director of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council

Sanam Shantyaei: Senior Journalist at France24 & host of Middle East Matters

Panel 1: Future of Diplomacy and Engagement in the Middle East (10:30 AM-11:45 AM ET)

The emerging regional order in West Asia will have wide-ranging implications for global security. The Biden administration has begun re-engaging Iran on the nuclear dossier, an initiative staunchly opposed by Israel, while also taking a harder line on Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen. Meanwhile, key regional actors, including Qatar, Iraq, and Oman, have engaged in backchannel efforts to bring Iran and Saudi Arabia to the negotiating table. From a broader geopolitical perspective, with the need to secure its energy imports, China is also expected to increase its footprint in the region and influence the mentioned challenges. 

In this evolving landscape, Western powers will be compelled to redefine their strategic priorities and adjust their policies with the new realities in the region. In this panel, we will discuss how the West, including the United States and its allies, can utilize multilateral diplomacy with its adversaries to prevent military escalation in the region. Most importantly, the panel will discuss if a multilateral security dialogue in the Persian Gulf region, proposed by some regional actors, can help reduce tensions among regional foes and produce sustainable peace and development for the region. 

Panelists:

Abdullah Baabood: Academic Researcher and Former Director of the Centre for Gulf Studies, Qatar University

Trita Parsi: Executive Vice-President, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft

Ebtesam Al-Ketbi: President, Emirates Policy Centre​

Jon Allen: Canada’s Former Ambassador to Israel

Elizabeth Hagedorn: Washington correspondent for Al-Monitor

Panel 4: Humanitarian Diplomacy: An Underused Foreign Policy Tool in the Middle East (4:30 PM - 5:30 PM ET)

Military interventions, political and economic instabilities, and civil unrest in the Middle East have led to a global refugee crisis with an increasing wave of refugees and asylum seekers to Europe and Canada. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has, in myriad ways, exacerbated and contributed to the ongoing security threats and destabilization of the region.

While these challenges pose serious risks to Canadian security, Ottawa will also have the opportunity to limit such risks and prevent a spillover effect vis-à-vis effective humanitarian initiatives in the region. In this panel, we will primarily investigate Canada’s Middle East Strategy’s degree of success in providing humanitarian aid to the region. Secondly, the panel will discuss what programs and initiatives Canada can introduce to further build on the renewed strategy. and more specifically, how Canada can utilize its policy instruments to more effectively deal with the increasing influx of refugees from the Middle East. 

 

Panelists:

Erica Di Ruggiero: Director of Centre for Global Health, University of Toronto

Reyhana Patel: Head of Communications & Government Relations, Islamic Relief Canada

Amir Barmaki: Former Head of UN OCHA in Iran

Catherine Gribbin: Senior Legal Advisor for International and Humanitarian Law, Canadian Red Cross

Panel 3: A Review of Canada’s Middle East Engagement and Defense Strategy (3:00 PM - 4:15 PM ET)

In 2016, Canada launched an ambitious five-year “Middle East Engagement Strategy” (2016-2021), committing to investing CA$3.5 billion over five years to help establish the necessary conditions for security and stability, alleviate human suffering and enable stabilization programs in the region. In the latest development, during the meeting of the Global Coalition against ISIS, Minister of Foreign Affairs Marc Garneau announced more than $43.6 million in Peace and Stabilization Operations Program funding for 11 projects in Syria and Iraq.

With Canada’s Middle East Engagement Strategy expiring this year, it is time to examine and evaluate this massive investment in the Middle East region in the past five years. More importantly, the panel will discuss a principled and strategic roadmap for the future of Canada’s short-term and long-term engagement in the Middle East.

Panelists:

Ferry de Kerckhove: Canada’s Former Ambassador to Egypt

Dennis Horak: Canada’s Former Ambassador to Saudi Arabia

Chris Kilford: Former Canadian Defence Attaché in Turkey, member of the national board of the Canadian International Council (CIC)

David Dewitt: University Professor Emeritus, York University

Panel 2: The Great Power Competition in the Middle East (12:00 PM - 1:15 PM ET)

While the United States continues to pull back from certain regional conflicts, reflected by the Biden administration’s decision to halt American backing for Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen and the expected withdrawal from Afghanistan, US troops continue to be stationed across the region. Meanwhile, Russia and China have significantly maintained and even expanded their regional activities. On one hand, the Kremlin has maintained its military presence in Syria, and on the other hand, China has signed an unprecedented 25-year strategic agreement with Iran.

As the global power structure continues to shift, it is essential to analyze the future of the US regional presence under the Biden administration, explore the emerging global rivalry with Russia and China, and at last, investigate the implications of such competition for peace and security in the Middle East.

Panelists:

Dmitri Trenin: Director of Carnegie Moscow Center

Joost R. Hiltermann: Director of MENA Programme, International Crisis Group

Roxane Farmanfarmaian: Affiliated Lecturer in International Relations of the Middle East and North Africa, University of Cambridge

Andrew A. Michta: Dean of the College of International and Security Studies at Marshall Center

Kelley Vlahos: Senior Advisor, Quincy Institute

Panel 1: A New Middle East Security Architecture in the Making (10:30 AM -11:45 AM ET)

The security architecture of the Middle East has undergone rapid transformations in an exceptionally short period. Notable developments include the United States gradual withdrawal from the region, rapprochement between Israel and some GCC states through the Abraham Accords and the rise of Chinese and Russian regional engagement.

With these new trends in the Middle East, it is timely to investigate the security implications of the Biden administration’s Middle East policy. In this respect, we will discuss the Biden team’s new approach vis-à-vis Iran, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. The panel will also discuss the role of other major powers, including China and Russia in shaping this new security environment in the region, and how the Biden administration will respond to these powers’ increasing regional presence.

 

Panelists:

Sanam Vakil: Deputy Director of MENA Programme at Chatham House

Denise Natali: Acting Director, Institute for National Strategic Studies & Director of the Center for Strategic Research, National Defense University

Hassan Ahmadian: Professor of the Middle East and North Africa Studies, University of Tehran

Abdulaziz Sagar: Chairman, Gulf Research Center

Andrew Parasiliti: President, Al-Monitor