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HomeBlogCanada Needs a Balanced Vaccine Strategy

Canada Needs a Balanced Vaccine Strategy

Image credit: Ibrahim Boran

By Pouyan Kimiayjan | Research Associate

If executed correctly, a coordinated strategy can advance Canada’s health diplomacy and vaccine export capacity while shielding the country’s people from unexpected disruptions to the complex global vaccine supply chain.

Canada is in the midst of COVID-19’s second wave. With the coming of winter, coronavirus cases have once again surged across the country. Even British Columbia—once revered as a prime example of successful virus management under the leadership of provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry—is witnessing a resurgence of cases across the province. Anticipating this second wave, the federal government was compelled to initiate a comprehensive vaccine strategy in April. Canada has pledged its commitment to help with the global distribution of vaccines. In parallel, Canada has pre-purchased a high number of vaccines from foreign companies. This two-handed approach, while imperative, could seriously undermine Canada’s domestic vaccine manufacturing capacity and produce unintended consequences for global pandemic management efforts, limiting access for low-income countries that are unable to similarly reserve doses.

In September, Canada joined a global vaccine procurement program and announced that it will also join the COVAX facility, a vaccine-sharing program connected to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the World Health Organization. Soon after, Prime Minister Trudeau announced a commitment of $220 million to the COVAX facility and pledged an additional $220 million to the COVAX Advance Market Commitment. The former is concerned with securing equitable access to vaccines for the global population, including Canadians, and the latter aims to ensure vaccines for low- and middle-income nations. 

At the same time, Canada has also prioritized the purchasing of vaccines from foreign candidates. The federal government was reported to have purchased a minimum of 154 million advance vaccine doses from five foreign vaccine companies in late September. By now, Canada has invested $1 billion to import vaccines from now six foreign candidates. Canada signed an agreement with Pfizer in August, securing millions of doses of potential vaccines. This week, Pfizer announced that its early data suggests that the firm’s COVID-19 vaccine is highly effective, a reassuring development for Canada. It should be pointed out that Vancouver-based biotech company Acuitas Therapeutics played a central role in the experimental treatment’s research and development. However, some academic experts argue that by joining the premier league of “vaccine nationalists”, where few rich nations had pre-purchased more than half of the globe’s expected short-term supply of vaccines, Canada will undermine the global effort to control the pandemic. The Serum Institute of India, the world’s largest vaccine producer, has predicted that under current trends, there will not be enough COVID vaccines available for the global population until 2024.

To compensate for such large pre-purchase orders, experts suggest that among other solutions, Canada must increase its global investments via the COVAX channel and also invest in its vaccine manufacturing capacity to avoid dependency on vaccine imports. Henceforth, additional financial commitments to the COVAX facility could help increase production capacity worldwide. Concerning domestic manufacturing capacity, there are currently more than a dozen Canadian vaccine candidates, many of which are registered with the World Health Organization. The federal government has provided aid to domestic candidates—for example, earmarking $126 million for a new facility in Montreal projected to produce two million vaccine doses per month for domestic use by the summer of 2021. And in October, Prime Minister Trudeau announced that the federal government has signed deals with two Canadian biotech firms totalling $214 million. Federal support for domestic vaccine manufacturers also enables Canada to increase vaccine exports and further advance its health diplomacy abroad: a comprehensive foreign policy initiative that has so far enabled Canada to increase its funding of WHO and other COVID-related global initiatives. This could serve as an opportunity to rebuild Canada’s reputation as a key international player, an imperative amid the United States’ abandonment of its international commitments. While a new US administration will assume power in January, Canada’s southern neighbour is currently engulfed in a post-election crisis and is therefore expected to be absent from the international arena for the next two months. 

Nevertheless, the made-in-Canada vaccine effort has been stymied by manufacturing delays. The Saskatoon-based Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization-International Vaccine Centre (VIDO-InterVac) that aimed to manufacture for targeted groups by March 2021 lacked the manufacturing capacity to produce in adequate numbers. This is where the federal government must take decisive action and subsidize Canada’s domestic manufacturing capacity. In fact, VIDO-InterVac director Dr. Volker Gerdts asserts that had the federal government recognized the value of investing in a dedicated manufacturing site before the pandemic, the Canadian vaccine would be far ahead of foreign competitors.

Moving forward, the federal government must pursue a balanced approach, providing additional investments to global vaccine initiatives and thus compensating for Canada’s disproportionate pre-purchase of vaccines from the global market—an effort that has impeded lower-income countries’ import of such desperately needed doses. At the same time, decisive steps should be taken to secure self-sufficiency for Canada’s supply line. Supporting domestic health research and manufacturing sectors could ultimately reduce dependency on foreign candidates and will certainly be beneficial for Canadian health security in the long-term. If executed correctly, such a coordinated strategy can advance Canada’s health diplomacy and vaccine export capacity while shielding the country’s people from unexpected disruptions to the complex global vaccine supply chain.


Panel 4: Pathways to Manage Non-Proliferation in the Middle East (4:30 PM - 5:45 PM ET)

The Western powers have failed to effectively manage the increasing threat of proliferation in the Middle East. While the international community is concerned with Iran’s nuclear program, Saudi Arabia has moved forward with developing its own nuclear program, and independent studies show that Israel has longed possessed dozens of nuclear warheads. The former is a member of the treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), while the latter has refused to sign the international agreement. 

On Middle East policy, the Biden campaign had staunchly criticized the Trump administration’s unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), more commonly known as the Iran Nuclear Deal and it has begun re-engaging Iran on the nuclear dossier since assuming office in January 2021. However, serious obstacles remain for responsible actors in expanding non-proliferation efforts toward a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East. 

This panel will discuss how Western powers and multilateral institutions, such as the IAEA, can play a more effective role in managing non-proliferation efforts in the Middle East.  


Peggy Mason: Canada’s former Ambassador to the UN for Disarmament

Mark Fitzpatrick: Associate Fellow & Former Executive Director, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)

Ali Vaez: Iran Project Director, International Crisis Group

Negar Mortazavi: Journalist and Political Analyst, Host of Iran Podcast

David Albright: Founder and President of the Institute for Science and International Security


Closing (5:45 PM – 6:00 PM ET)

Panel 3: Trade and Business Diplomacy in the Middle East (3:00 PM - 4:15 PM ET)

What is the current economic landscape in the Middle East? While global foreign direct investment is expected to fall drastically in the post-COVID era, the World Bank reported a 5% contraction in the economic output of the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries in 2020 due to the pandemic. While oil prices are expected to rebound with normalization in demand, political instability, regional and geopolitical tensions, domestic corruption, and a volatile regulatory and legal environment all threaten economic recovery in the Middle East. What is the prospect for economic growth and development in the region post-pandemic, and how could MENA nations promote sustainable growth and regional trade moving forward?

At the same time, Middle Eastern diaspora communities have become financially successful and can help promote trade between North America and the region. In this respect, the diaspora can become vital intermediaries for advancing U.S. and Canada’s business interests abroad. Promoting business diplomacy can both benefit the MENA region and be an effective and positive way to advance engagement and achieve foreign policy goals of the North Atlantic.

This panel will investigate the trade and investment opportunities in the Middle East, discuss how facilitating economic engagement with the region can benefit Canadian and American national interests, and explore relevant policy prescriptions.


Hon. Sergio Marchi: Canada’s Former Minister of International Trade

Scott Jolliffe: Chairperson, Canada Arab Business Council

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj: Founder and Publisher of Bourse & Bazaar

Nizar Ghanem: Director of Research and Co-founder at Triangle

Nicki Siamaki: Researcher at Control Risks

Panel 2: Arms Race and Terrorism in the Middle East (12:00 PM - 1:15 PM ET)

The Middle East continues to grapple with violence and instability, particularly in Yemen, Syria and Iraq. Fueled by government incompetence and foreign interventions, terrorist insurgencies have imposed severe humanitarian and economic costs on the region. Meanwhile, regional actors have engaged in an unprecedented pursuit of arms accumulation. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have imported billions of both Western and Russian-made weapons and funded militant groups across the region, intending to contain their regional adversaries, particularly Iran. Tehran has also provided sophisticated weaponry to various militia groups across the region to strengthen its geopolitical position against Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Israel. 

On the other hand, with international terrorist networks and intense regional rivalry in the Middle East, it is impractical to discuss peace and security without addressing terrorism and the arms race in the region. This panel will primarily discuss the implications of the ongoing arms race in the region and the role of Western powers and multilateral organizations in facilitating trust-building security arrangements among regional stakeholders to limit the proliferation of arms across the Middle East.



Luciano Zaccara: Assistant Professor, Qatar University

Dania Thafer: Executive Director, Gulf International Forum

Kayhan Barzegar: Professor and Chair of the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the Science and Research Branch of Azad University

Barbara Slavin: Director of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council

Sanam Shantyaei: Senior Journalist at France24 & host of Middle East Matters

Panel 1: Future of Diplomacy and Engagement in the Middle East (10:30 AM-11:45 AM ET)

The emerging regional order in West Asia will have wide-ranging implications for global security. The Biden administration has begun re-engaging Iran on the nuclear dossier, an initiative staunchly opposed by Israel, while also taking a harder line on Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen. Meanwhile, key regional actors, including Qatar, Iraq, and Oman, have engaged in backchannel efforts to bring Iran and Saudi Arabia to the negotiating table. From a broader geopolitical perspective, with the need to secure its energy imports, China is also expected to increase its footprint in the region and influence the mentioned challenges. 

In this evolving landscape, Western powers will be compelled to redefine their strategic priorities and adjust their policies with the new realities in the region. In this panel, we will discuss how the West, including the United States and its allies, can utilize multilateral diplomacy with its adversaries to prevent military escalation in the region. Most importantly, the panel will discuss if a multilateral security dialogue in the Persian Gulf region, proposed by some regional actors, can help reduce tensions among regional foes and produce sustainable peace and development for the region. 


Abdullah Baabood: Academic Researcher and Former Director of the Centre for Gulf Studies, Qatar University

Trita Parsi: Executive Vice-President, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft

Ebtesam Al-Ketbi: President, Emirates Policy Centre​

Jon Allen: Canada’s Former Ambassador to Israel

Elizabeth Hagedorn: Washington correspondent for Al-Monitor

Panel 4: Humanitarian Diplomacy: An Underused Foreign Policy Tool in the Middle East (4:30 PM - 5:30 PM ET)

Military interventions, political and economic instabilities, and civil unrest in the Middle East have led to a global refugee crisis with an increasing wave of refugees and asylum seekers to Europe and Canada. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has, in myriad ways, exacerbated and contributed to the ongoing security threats and destabilization of the region.

While these challenges pose serious risks to Canadian security, Ottawa will also have the opportunity to limit such risks and prevent a spillover effect vis-à-vis effective humanitarian initiatives in the region. In this panel, we will primarily investigate Canada’s Middle East Strategy’s degree of success in providing humanitarian aid to the region. Secondly, the panel will discuss what programs and initiatives Canada can introduce to further build on the renewed strategy. and more specifically, how Canada can utilize its policy instruments to more effectively deal with the increasing influx of refugees from the Middle East. 



Erica Di Ruggiero: Director of Centre for Global Health, University of Toronto

Reyhana Patel: Head of Communications & Government Relations, Islamic Relief Canada

Amir Barmaki: Former Head of UN OCHA in Iran

Catherine Gribbin: Senior Legal Advisor for International and Humanitarian Law, Canadian Red Cross

Panel 3: A Review of Canada’s Middle East Engagement and Defense Strategy (3:00 PM - 4:15 PM ET)

In 2016, Canada launched an ambitious five-year “Middle East Engagement Strategy” (2016-2021), committing to investing CA$3.5 billion over five years to help establish the necessary conditions for security and stability, alleviate human suffering and enable stabilization programs in the region. In the latest development, during the meeting of the Global Coalition against ISIS, Minister of Foreign Affairs Marc Garneau announced more than $43.6 million in Peace and Stabilization Operations Program funding for 11 projects in Syria and Iraq.

With Canada’s Middle East Engagement Strategy expiring this year, it is time to examine and evaluate this massive investment in the Middle East region in the past five years. More importantly, the panel will discuss a principled and strategic roadmap for the future of Canada’s short-term and long-term engagement in the Middle East.


Ferry de Kerckhove: Canada’s Former Ambassador to Egypt

Dennis Horak: Canada’s Former Ambassador to Saudi Arabia

Chris Kilford: Former Canadian Defence Attaché in Turkey, member of the national board of the Canadian International Council (CIC)

David Dewitt: University Professor Emeritus, York University

Panel 2: The Great Power Competition in the Middle East (12:00 PM - 1:15 PM ET)

While the United States continues to pull back from certain regional conflicts, reflected by the Biden administration’s decision to halt American backing for Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen and the expected withdrawal from Afghanistan, US troops continue to be stationed across the region. Meanwhile, Russia and China have significantly maintained and even expanded their regional activities. On one hand, the Kremlin has maintained its military presence in Syria, and on the other hand, China has signed an unprecedented 25-year strategic agreement with Iran.

As the global power structure continues to shift, it is essential to analyze the future of the US regional presence under the Biden administration, explore the emerging global rivalry with Russia and China, and at last, investigate the implications of such competition for peace and security in the Middle East.


Dmitri Trenin: Director of Carnegie Moscow Center

Joost R. Hiltermann: Director of MENA Programme, International Crisis Group

Roxane Farmanfarmaian: Affiliated Lecturer in International Relations of the Middle East and North Africa, University of Cambridge

Andrew A. Michta: Dean of the College of International and Security Studies at Marshall Center

Kelley Vlahos: Senior Advisor, Quincy Institute

Panel 1: A New Middle East Security Architecture in the Making (10:30 AM -11:45 AM ET)

The security architecture of the Middle East has undergone rapid transformations in an exceptionally short period. Notable developments include the United States gradual withdrawal from the region, rapprochement between Israel and some GCC states through the Abraham Accords and the rise of Chinese and Russian regional engagement.

With these new trends in the Middle East, it is timely to investigate the security implications of the Biden administration’s Middle East policy. In this respect, we will discuss the Biden team’s new approach vis-à-vis Iran, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. The panel will also discuss the role of other major powers, including China and Russia in shaping this new security environment in the region, and how the Biden administration will respond to these powers’ increasing regional presence.



Sanam Vakil: Deputy Director of MENA Programme at Chatham House

Denise Natali: Acting Director, Institute for National Strategic Studies & Director of the Center for Strategic Research, National Defense University

Hassan Ahmadian: Professor of the Middle East and North Africa Studies, University of Tehran

Abdulaziz Sagar: Chairman, Gulf Research Center

Andrew Parasiliti: President, Al-Monitor